Gold and Silver Continue to Surge: Implicit Markets Saw $5,000 Milestone and Startup $100 Sebagai

The impressive surge continued to mark the precious metal’s performance in January, with gold and silver recording monthly gains above 7 percent and close to 30 percent, respectively. In today’s trading, spot gold was moving around $4,950 an ounce with a daily gain of about 2.5%, while silver jumped more than 6% near the $99 per ounce level. Meanwhile, Bitcoin came under pressure and was trading at $83.92K with a drop of 6.23%, while Ethereum corrected to $2.79K, reflecting the different market dynamics between traditional and digital assets.

Precious Metals Momentum Continues with Strong Market Signals

Market expectations are increasingly clear showing that the $5,000 levels for gold and $100 for silver are no longer seen as the peak of resistance, but rather as a stepping stone to further gains. Implicit data from the prediction market reveals that speculators are massively positioning themselves for results that go beyond those levels. On Polymarket, a contract questioning whether gold or Ethereum will first reach $5,000 gives a 97% probability for gold, reflecting a very strong belief in the continuation of the precious metal’s momentum given that Ethereum is still below $3,000.

Analysis of the month-end market shows a very measured concentration of predictions in scenarios where gold closes January at or above $5,000. The weight given to the much lower price movement remains minimal, hinting at the deep implicit conviction of market participants. Similar dynamics are seen in the silver market, where significant opportunities are set for a close above $85 with substantial position placement leading to the $100 milestone. In contrast, for Bitcoin, market anticipation suggests a more controlled move, with most traders expecting the asset to remain in the range of around $85,000 by the end of the month, albeit with volatility continuing to fluctuate.

Silver Volatility Increases Drastically While Bitcoin Shows Compression

The volatility profile provides an interesting clue as to how macroeconomic uncertainty is distributed across asset classes. Silver’s manifested volatility has risen sharply to the 60s range, signaling more extreme and responsive price movements. In contrast, gold’s volatility remained relatively controlled in the lower 20s range, indicating a more regular and stable price adjustment despite significant gains. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is experiencing a compression of realization volatility to the mid-30s range, even as it approaches recent highs. This pattern implies a strategic shift in which investors shift their expressions of uncertainty away from digital assets towards precious metals that are considered more reliable hedging instruments.

Goldman Sachs Projections and Market Anticipation Towards the Close of the Month

Goldman Sachs recently lifted its end-of-2026 price target for gold to $5,400 an ounce, up from a previous projection of $4,900. The gains reflect a more bullish outlook on precious metals amid global economic uncertainty. This projection implicitly confirms the market’s approach to a breakout of critical levels in the near future. With continued momentum and strong market signals, the reach of $5,000 for gold in the next few days is no longer seen as an extreme scenario, but as a highly predictable outcome of market participants.

While precious metals stole the limelight, the crypto-related stock sector faced heavy pressure in January. The majority of crypto issuers recorded a further decline today in line with Bitcoin’s weakness. Crypto spot trading volume also contracted significantly, falling 50% from $1.7 trillion last year to $900 billion, reflecting a decline in market enthusiasm and a rise in caution among investors. However, Bitcoin companies that have diversified into AI and high-performance computing infrastructure continue to perform more resiliently than their peers that remain focused on traditional mining.