$ETH 1. Macro Trend (Daily & Weekly Chart)

The general trend is downward: In the daily (1D) and weekly (1W) charts, the price is clearly in a descending channel. The moving average system (MA5, MA10, MA30) shows a standard short arrangement (short-term EMAs are below the long-term EMA and all diverge downward).

Weekly: The price has fallen below the lower Bollinger Band (LB), which usually means oversold at the weekly level, but it also shows that the downward momentum is very strong, which is a "one-sided plunge" market.

Daily: Price has a weak rebound attempt after bottoming out near 2752, but is heavily suppressed by the 5-day EMA (MA5: 2918) and the Bollinger Middle Band (BOLL: 3087) above.

Conclusion: The general direction is currently extremely strong bears, and any rally should be seen as a "respite" or "dead cat jump" in the process of falling, not a reversal.

2. Short-term kinetic energy (4 hours & 1 hour & 15 minutes)

4-hour chart:

The price has just experienced a sharp decline, the MACD indicator is deep below the zero axis, and the green bars are still enlarged, indicating that the bearish forces are still dominant.

While there is short-term support around 2752, the rebound is weak and capped at the 2888 line.

1 hour & 15 minute chart:

Oversold Rally: At the 1-hour and 15-minute levels, the price has touched the recent low area (2752-2800) and is currently in a post-oversold correction phase.

MACD Divergence Signs: The MACD on the 15-minute chart shows signs of a bottom divergence (the price hits a new low, but the MACD lows are rising), which usually means that there may be a small level of rebound or sideways movement in the short term.

Key pressure: The short-term life-and-death line is near 2834 - 2850 (4-hour upper Bollinger band and short-term moving average suppressed).

3. Key points

Support Levels (Key Defense):

2752.43: This is the absolute life-and-death line at present. If it falls below this price, there will be no decent support below, potentially opening a new round of free fall.

Pressure level (rebound resistance):

2834 - 2850: Short-term first pressure level. If it can stand firm at 2850, it is possible to test the daily level pressure of 2918.

2918: Daily MA5 pressure level, strong resistance.

3000 integer mark: psychological pressure level, currently out of reach.

4. Comprehensive operation suggestions

The current market belongs to the stage of "weak repair after a sharp decline".

Aggressive long (Bo rebound):

Logic: Use the 15-minute/1-hour oversold divergence to get a short-term rebound fix.

Entry: Try to take a light position directly at the current price (around 2814), or enter the market when it does not break 2800-2810.

Stop Loss: It must be set strictly below the 2752 breakdown. Once below 2752, immediately stop loss unconditionally, do not hesitate.

Take profit: The first target is 2850, and the second target is 2888. If there is no increase in volume when the target level is reached, it is recommended to leave the market in batches.

Steady short (follow the trend):

Logic: The general trend is to fall, and the rebound is to give you the opportunity to short.

Entry: Wait for the price to bounce back to around 2840 - 2850 and enter the short position when there is a clear resistance signal (e.g., long upper shadow, shortening MACD red bar) at this position.

Stop loss: Set above 2888.

Take Profit: Look back at 2752 or even lower.

Special Reminder:

Don't guess the bottom in the middle of the plunge: 2752 is the previous low, and there is a high probability that it will be tested repeatedly. Don't feel that you have bottomed out when you see a little up, the current overall moving average is too severely suppressed.

Pay attention to trading volume: If the current rebound does not have trading volume (buying orders are significantly greater than selling orders), then the rebound is likely to be weak.

Risk control: Currently, volatility is violent, and leverage trading must control positions to prevent liquidation.

Summary strategy: In the short term, let's first look at the rebound repair, the upper 2834-2850 is the pressure zone, and the blockage can be short; If it unexpectedly falls below 2752, it will definitely leave the market and wait and see.