The linkage market of gold and Bitcoin will be very "divided" at the beginning of 2026~ The strength of gold may provide Bitcoin with an opportunity to "lag and catch up"?

The linkage market of gold and Bitcoin will be very "divided" at the beginning of 2026 - gold has soared all the way above $5,000 and even rushed towards the $5,200-5,500 range, while Bitcoin has fluctuated sideways around $89,000-90,000, and even a short-term correction, and the linkage has weakened significantly. At present, this decoupling of "gold rising alone and Bitcoin lying flat" may continue for some time, but in the long run, there is still a positive correlation between the two, and the strength of gold may provide Bitcoin with an opportunity to "lag and catch up". Current Data at a Glance (Based on Real-Time Market on January 29, 2026)
Gold price: around $5,170-5,200 per ounce (which has hit a new high of $5,330 in some periods), has risen by more than 18% at the beginning of 2026 and nearly 65-80% in 2025.
Bitcoin price: Approximately $89,000-$90,000 range (recent highs were close to $98,000-$100,000, but with a significant pullback), basically flat or slightly down so far in 2026.
BTC/Gold Ratio (How many ounces of gold can 1 BTC buy): Currently around 16.68-18 (near historical lows), it means that Bitcoin is seriously "undervalued" or "lagging behind" relative to gold.
Correlation coefficient:
Rolling correlation over the past 12 months: about -0.09 to -0.27 (negative correlation or close to zero, almost no linkage in the short term).
Long-term (multi-year dimension): positively correlated, but short-term cyclical decoupling is obvious.
Why is the linkage break now? The core drives differentiation
Differences in safe-haven attributes: Gold is the traditional "king of risk aversion" and has performed most steadily under macro pressures, geopolitical conflicts, a weakening dollar, and central bank gold purchases (dominated by emerging markets such as China). In 2026, global uncertainty is high (tariff threat, government shutdown, US debt pressure, inflation stickiness), and funds will preferentially pour into gold as "physical insurance".
Bitcoin is more like a "risk asset": Bitcoin is currently more closely linked to US stocks (S&P 500 correlation of more than 0.7) and technology stocks, and is affected by macro liquidity, leveraged liquidation, and investor "muscle memory". In 2025, Bitcoin will fall by 5-23% and gold will rise by 64%, temporarily failing the "digital gold" narrative.
Different sources of liquidity: gold benefits from China's real economy liquidity + central bank reserve demand; Bitcoin relies more on institutional ETF inflows and internal crypto rotation, and is suppressed by the pullback of US stocks and tariff panic in the short term.
Short-term negative correlation cycle: Historical data shows that gold and Bitcoin are positively correlated in the long term, but in the short term, they tend to be "cyclically separated" - gold rises first (macro hedging), and Bitcoin lags behind (when risk appetite picks up).
How far can the linkage market go? Three scenario prospects
Short-term (1-3 months): high probability of decoupling or negative correlation continuation. Gold may continue to rise (target $5,500-6,000, bullish by BMO and other institutions), and Bitcoin will fluctuate and bottom out (support in the $86,000-$75,000 range). If macro pressure intensifies (shutdown, tariff escalation), gold continues to be unique, and Bitcoin will be difficult to have a strong linkage.
Medium-term (3-6 months): After gold leads the rise, the chances of "rotating" to Bitcoin increase. Historical patterns show that gold rallies tend to outpace Bitcoin by 3-7 months (supported by the Granger causal test). If the Fed's interest rate cut expectations heat up, the US dollar weakens structurally, and institutions continue to allocate, BTC may experience a lagging outbreak, targeting $130,000-169,000 (some analysts' fractal model).
Long-term (full year of 2026): The probability of positive correlation reappearing is high. Both are "inflation-resistant/scarce assets", and Bitcoin's market value is only 4-5% of gold, with more room for growth. Cathie Wood and others are optimistic about higher risk-adjusted returns on Bitcoin; However, if the global macro continues to be "risk-averse", gold may dominate throughout the year, and Bitcoin and other liquidity will pick up across the board.
At present, don't expect gold and Bitcoin to "synchronize carnival", gold is the "safe-haven king" at this stage, and Bitcoin is more like a growth asset that "waits for the wind to come". Want to play crossovers? Consider:
Allocate gold ETFs/physical gold bars to guarantee the base.
Bitcoin is invested at a low level, and the bet lags behind the rotation.
or dual-holding diversification (5-10% gold + bitcoin), gold protection under macro pressure, and bitcoin amplifies returns when risk appetite rebounds.
Market sentiment is divided: gold is celebrating new highs, Bitcoin is waiting for the "digital gold" narrative to restart. The volatility is large, the stop loss is set well, and the high leverage is not rushed! #金价突破5500美元