Is Crypto's Bull Run Really Over? Signs That Suggest Otherwise

The crypto market is once again at a crossroads. After the bull run hit all-time highs—Bitcoin touching $126,080 USD in 2025—the sector is now facing a major correction. BTC has retreated to $84,070, while Ethereum is trading at $2,800 and Solana at $117.52. For many investors, the question is inevitable: is crypto’s bull run finally over? The answer is more complex than the red numbers of recent weeks suggest.

Although prices paint a bleak picture, there are deep structural signs that indicate that this bull cycle still has fuel. Unlike previous cycles, 2025-2026 represents a historic transition: for the first time, institutional adoption and the global regulatory framework are mature enough to sustain a more durable bull run, without the need to follow the classic pattern of explosion followed by prolonged collapse.

Crypto in turbulence: panic vs. structural strength

The drop from $126,000 to $84,070 unleashed a wave of panic selling. Three factors explain the selling pressure:

First, geopolitical uncertainty between the U.S. and China has elevated systematic risk, causing liquidity to exit volatile assets. Second, on-chain data shows that liquidity pools are concentrated at key levels ($108k-$102k), a pattern that long-term traders take advantage of to “clean up” before continuing the upward move. Third, the inordinate euphoria of new retail investors over the past two months led to an excessive build-up of leverage, which was sharply liquidated when the price fell below $110,000.

However, behind this volatility, on-chain and macroeconomic indicators tell a different story. Bitcoin’s realized price remains well above the average market cost, indicating that the bullish structure remains intact. The MVRV ratio has not entered extreme overvalued territory as it did in 2017 or 2021. BTC deposits on exchanges hit 5-year lows—meaning sophisticated investors prefer to accumulate, not sell.

Why does institutional capital keep coming in? The True History of the Bull Run

The fundamental difference between this cycle and previous ones is not in the price numbers, but in who is buying.

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the U.S., South Korea, and Brazil continue to see massive inflows of billions of dollars. The regulation of stablecoins in Europe, Singapore, and the U.S. (MiCA, Singapore PS Act, GENIUS Act) opened the doors for traditional institutions such as BlackRock, Fidelity, JPMorgan, HSBC, and Standard Chartered to offer crypto products to their customers. These institutions are not coming in for short-term speculation—they are building long-term strategic exposure.

More crucially, institutional capital is agnostic to the feeling of panic. While retail investors flee during the falls, institutional funds take the opportunity to increase positions. This is a consistent pattern observed during every correction in 2025.

Crypto Infrastructure Grows as Price Falls

Parallel to the price turbulence, the infrastructure supporting crypto’s bull run is expanding rapidly.

Real-world asset tokenization (RWA) is now the biggest narrative after artificial intelligence. Global banks have already tokenized treasury bonds, real estate, commercial loans, and carbon credits. The RWA market is projected to reach $10 billion by 2030. Blockchains such as Solana, Ethereum, Polygon, Avalanche, and Bitcoin (via LBTC) are positioned at the center of this revolution.

Simultaneously, Fortune 500 companies are integrating cryptos into their operations. Starbucks, Grab, and Adidas expand blockchain-based loyalty programs. Microsoft, Meta, and OpenAI are all building AI + blockchain infrastructure. Maersk and DHL use blockchain for supply chain. Each of these adoptions adds real liquidity to the ecosystem.

Sovereign wealth funds from Asia and the Middle East have begun holding Bitcoin and Ethereum as long-term diversification assets. When governments—not just speculators—consider crypto as a strategic reserve, the game shifted scale.

Three Possible Paths to 2026: Crypto Bull Run Scenarios

The market is headed for one of three outcomes in the next 6 months:

Base Scenario: Sustained Recovery. BTC bounces towards $115,000-$120,000; ETH reaches $4,500-$5,000; Altcoins experience their Phase 2 rally. This scenario kicks in if ETF flows remain positive and the RWA infrastructure continues to accelerate. Estimated probability: 50%.

Lateral scenario: Extended consolidation. Bitcoin oscillates between $80,000-$100,000 until mid-2026, forming a solid foundation for the next push. Potential triggers: changes in interest rate policy, geopolitical frictions, regulatory decisions. Estimated probability: 35%.

Bearish scenario: deeper corrective pulse. If geopolitical instability escalates, BTC tests $75,000-$80,000. However, even in this case, the bull run structure remains intact in the long term. Estimated probability: 15%.

Conclusion: The Bull Run is Paused, Not Full Stop

Despite Bitcoin having pulled back $42,000 from its all-time high, on-chain analysis, institutional flow, and accelerated maturation of crypto infrastructure indicate that this is a health correction within a longer bull cycle, not the collapse of a bubble.

The narrative of 2026 will not be determined by retail sentiment—it will be determined by institutional decisions. As long as BlackRock, Fidelity, sovereign governments, and Fortune 500 companies continue to build positions in crypto, the bull run has more fuel to burn.

The crypto bull run is not over. It only entered its institutional confirmation phase.

Risk Note

This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading carries substantial risks, including total loss of capital. Conduct self-research (DYOR) before making investment decisions.