🌍 The sky has changed! Capitol Hill presses the pause button, under the clouds of war, where are your $BTC and $ETH safeguarding?

❓ Soul torture: When politicians in Washington press the pause button at the last minute before the clock strikes midnight on Friday for a “technical shutdown” that could take over global markets, would you dare to bet on the outcome of their negotiations next week?

Washington’s political clock reads zero just before midnight on Friday. A crisis that could bring some federal government agencies to a standstill was put on hold by a last-minute interim agreement. At the heart of the agreement is to give the Department of Homeland Security a two-week respite to continue negotiations on the controversial terms of the immigration enforcement action. Market observers noted that the urgency of the negotiations stemmed from a fatal incident in Minneapolis earlier this month that killed two U.S. citizens and sparked widespread questions about federal law enforcement actions across the country.

Democrats have proposed a series of measures aimed at limiting law enforcement powers, including banning law enforcement officers from wearing face coverings, mandating the use of body cameras, and requiring search warrants before entering private residences. These requirements constitute a central obstacle to negotiations. Although the Senate and the White House reached a provisional consensus on Thursday evening, the legislative process still faces an insurmountable hurdle: the House of Representatives has adjourned, and lawmakers have left Washington, planning not to return until next Monday.

This means that any procedural adjustments that require a re-vote by the House of Representatives are almost impossible in terms of time. So even if the Senate passes the temporary appropriations agreement, a brief funding outage and technical shutdown over the weekend is almost a foregone conclusion. However, some analysts believe that this short-term shutdown will have little substantial impact on the daily operation of the government, and it is not expected to make much waves in the financial market.

However, the political undercurrent beneath the surface is even more turbulent. Recent polls show that the current government’s immigration enforcement support among voters is declining. This trend poses a political risk that cannot be ignored for the Republican Party, which is facing pressure from the midterm elections. This may also be one of the key impetus for the White House to consider adjusting its tough deportation policy and be willing to sit down and negotiate.

For the crypto market, the impact path of such events has always been tortuous. In the short term, the market hates uncertainty. The shadow of a government shutdown, even if it is technical, can exacerbate volatility in traditional capital markets, and some risk aversion may briefly spill over to assets considered digital gold, such as $BTC. However, the longer-term impact is that the political polarization and inefficient decision-making in the United States reflected in the fiscal impasse will continue to weaken the credit of fiat currencies and provide a backdrop to the long-term store-of-value narrative of crypto assets.

Historical experience is like a silent mentor. Over the past two decades of my Wall Street career, I’ve seen that real market turns often begin with a seemingly inconsequential compromise in the Capitol Hill corridor or the ink of a tentative agreement at midnight. At this moment, the two-week buffer period is not the end, but the beginning of the next round of the game. Are your positions ready?

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