Analysis: The increase in the proportion of Bitcoin losing supply may indicate that the market has entered the early stages of a bear market

2026-01-30 01:41:40

According to ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu said that Bitcoin’s “supply in loss (%)” has begun to trend upwards again. Looking at historical data, this shift marks the early stages of the bear market: this is when losses begin to spread, no longer limited to short-term holders but gradually spilling over to long-term participants.

In previous cycles (2014, 2018, 2022), this indicator has started to rise before the market bottomed out, while the price has continued to weaken. A true bottom will only form if the “percentage of losing supply” expands significantly. Currently, the “percentage of losing supply” is still well below historical capitulation levels, but its directional change itself is significant. This suggests that the market may be transitioning towards a bearish structure rather than experiencing a temporary pullback in a bullish trend.

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