The Pain Scenario of the Crypto Market 2026: When Traditional Patterns Collapse

Western crypto community in recent weeks has been literally overwhelmed with fears of a repeat of 2021. It seems that all signs point to the same conclusion — and surely everyone is reading the same script. However, a careful analysis of what has actually happened in the market over the past three years reveals one simple truth: if all the “obvious” factors worked reliably, most participants wouldn’t be so often mistaken. The market is structured in such a way that consensus often turns out to be a trap — let’s consider a scenario that won’t provide comfort to either bulls or bears.

The Collapse of Classic Formulas: When ETFs and Cycles Stop Helping

Initially, everything seemed predictable. The launch of the BTC ETF caused a correction of -25%, and the prolonged anticipation of the ETH ETF resulted in a plunge of -60% right during what everyone considered a bullish market. Four-year cycles, on which an entire generation of traders has grown, no longer work in the same format.

Rise of altcoins after Bitcoin’s ATH? Not this time. Good news hits the market downward. Political upheavals, geopolitical events — all of these become reasons for panic selling rather than rallies. Current data show: BTC is trading at $83.04K (as of January 30, 2026), remaining in a zone of increased turbulence. One of the most critical levels is precisely this price zone around $83,800, where the market’s next move — whether to find a new bottom or open the way to recovery — will be decided.

The Liquidity Paradox: When Retail Confidence Creates the Opposite Result

The truth is not in some hostile actor “pressing the pedal” or the principle of pressure stemming from political confrontation. In reality, extreme conviction and financial bets of retail participants on a certain outcome are what create the very liquidity and motivation for opposite movement.

Today, bearish sentiment intensifies daily. Any positive signal is immediately met with the argument: “According to technical analysis, a bearish phase has already turned, the chart exactly repeats 2021 — now only down.” But here lies the potential for a completely different scenario: it is precisely these beliefs that generate the critical liquidity which could fuel a sharp rebound.

The Critical Moment Below $83,800: Testing Convictions

The local hope for a miracle, which arose about two weeks ago during a brief market recovery, is now gradually fading. It will completely die out if Bitcoin’s price falls below the critical level of $83,800. At that moment, bears will gain final confidence in the inevitability of further decline — especially if negative news hits the market. Paradoxically, this very point of extreme pessimism could become an opportunity for a very strong rebound amid total despair. In a bullish scenario, recovery could even reach the decision zone of 100-103K, where the market will finally choose its direction.

From a Bright Future to Disaster: When Hope Turns into Pain

Imagine: the market is rising, the disturbing pattern of 2021 is broken, spring sun shines brighter than usual. Amid this, news comes that the current Fed Chair is preparing to step down. Candidates positioning themselves as crypto enthusiasts and industry defenders enter the electoral process. It seems that nothing can stop the market now.

But traditionally, at an event that should have shifted monetary policy toward easing, a shock occurs. Liquidations, blood on the charts, the price drops below $75,000. By the end of the first half of 2026, a second dominance peak might even form, convincing the crypto community of an ultimate collapse. At this moment, investors will be left with only one thought: “It’s over.”

The Golden Hour: When Disaster Becomes an Opportunity

But the time will come when it will be necessary to “save” the economy. Then cryptocurrencies could become exactly the tool needed. This will be our time — the time for those who managed to survive through all this pain, who understood the essence of this scenario and did not give up in the face of liquidations.

Undoubtedly, the future remains uncertain. This scenario may not unfold exactly as described. But don’t you think that this is precisely the scenario that the vast majority of market participants are simply unprepared for? That’s the point: the market often moves toward where the least readiness exists among most participants. And if almost everyone believes in one thing — the scenario often turns out to be entirely different.