The Bitcoin Apocalypse Scenario: When Historical Patterns Are Reversed

As of the end of January 2026, Bitcoin is breaking one of the so-called “doomsday” technical rules — signals indicating market collapse have historically shaped all major price peaks. With the current price at $82.74K and a volatility of -5.98%, BTC not only resists downward pressure but also exhibits structural characteristics entirely different from previous cycles.

Doomsday signals that once shaped historical peaks

In the past three cycles — 2014, 2018, and 2022 — Bitcoin experienced a very specific sequence of technical events signaling a catastrophic collapse. This scenario always unfolds in an unchanging order: the weekly closing price falls below the 100-period moving average (SMA 100), followed by the deadly crossover between the EMA 100 and SMA 100. From an in-depth analytical perspective, this is the final confirmation before a “nuke” — an extremely strong downward phase.

Current technical structure: A clear anomaly

However, the current technical structure is operating under a completely different logic. Despite recent volatile pressures, the EMA 100 and SMA 100 still maintain a healthy upward arrangement. Notably, the price action does not surrender to these moving averages; instead, Bitcoin continuously and aggressively protects these support levels. This phenomenon completely dismisses the doomsday scenario once predicted by traditional technical models.

Absorptive power from institutions: Preventing the collapse story

This divergence is not accidental. From the perspective of professional analysts, the emergence of strong absorption from institutional investors is preventing the historic doomsday scenario. Instead of witnessing a collapse following the old pattern, the market is undergoing a restructuring process, where major institutions have been gradually accumulating at lower levels, steadfastly defending the price floor.

Cycle 2026: A new reference framework emerging

Updated data at 14:09 on 30/01/2026 confirms that Bitcoin not only escapes the doomsday scenario but also establishes a completely new reference framework for the 2026 cycle. Instead of a downward crossover following the old formula, we are witnessing the formation of a cycle with distinct characteristics. What is happening is not a repetition of the past but the beginning of a new phase, where institutional factors and technical structures are rewriting the market’s rules.