Federal Reserve rates in January: almost guaranteed stability according to market data

2026-01-30 16:16:24

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By the end of January 2026, financial markets overwhelmingly bet on the Federal Reserve remaining inactive. According to the CME analysis platform, the probability of a rate decision reveals a clear scenario where monetary stability prevails over any policy change.

The rate outlook in January: 95% probability of maintaining the course

CME’s FedWatch tool indicates there is over a 95% chance that the U.S. central bank will keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting. Additionally, ChainCatcher reports that only 5% of traders anticipate a 25 basis point cut in rates. This market consensus reflects the widespread view that current economic conditions do not justify a change in monetary policy direction.

Projections toward March: slight openness to rate cuts

When extending the horizon to March, the rate outlook shows interesting nuances. The probability of maintaining rates at their current level stands at 84.1%, remaining the most likely scenario. However, expectations of a cumulative 25 basis point cut in rates increase significantly to 15.4%, suggesting that some market participants are beginning to consider the possibility of a future change. The probability of two consecutive cuts (50 basis points) remains practically insignificant at 0.6%.

This rate information provides investors and analysts with a framework to understand the expected trajectory of U.S. monetary policy during the first quarter of 2026.

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