What is the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in January?

Financial markets are watching the upcoming moves of the US monetary authority. According to CME analysis tools, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will not change its interest rates in the immediate decisions. The CME FedWatch platform provides clear insights into the expected behavior of monetary authorities.

January Scenarios: No Change in Rates Dominates Expectations

What is the likelihood that monetary policy will remain stable in January? Data shows a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates at their current level during this month’s decision. This contrasts with just a 5% chance of a 25 basis point cut, according to ChainCatcher.

This high probability of maintaining the status quo reflects the cautious approach of authorities in the face of inflationary pressures and economic outlooks. Markets consider it almost certain that there will be no changes at this time.

March Projections: Greater Chances of Future Cuts

The situation changes when looking at medium-term scenarios. For March, the probability of an accumulated 25 basis point cut rises to 15.4%, while the chance of keeping rates unchanged decreases to 84.1%. There is also a remote 0.6% probability of a more pronounced 50 basis point cut.

These percentages reveal that, although the Federal Reserve maintains a restrictive stance in the short term, there is some anticipation of possible adjustments in the coming months. The shift in probabilities between January and March suggests a gradual change in market expectations about the future trajectory of rates.

What It Means for Cryptocurrency Investors

Decisions on the Federal Reserve’s interest rates significantly impact risk appetite in global markets. While the probability of immediate changes is low, the growing possibility of cuts in March keeps investors vigilant about upcoming economic indicators and communications from monetary authorities.