Risk avoidance dominates the market, Bitcoin's dominant position faces a test: Cryptocurrency Market Weekly Report

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a subtle shift in power—against the backdrop of waning global risk sentiment, Bitcoin’s market dominance is coming under pressure. Although the US dollar index continues to weaken and gold prices keep rising, these signals, which typically favor risk assets, have failed to give Bitcoin an upward push. This contradictory phenomenon reflects a deeper emotional shift in the current market: investors are avoiding risk rather than embracing it.

According to the latest data, Bitcoin is currently priced at $77,910, down 7.07% over the past 24 hours, with a circulating market cap of $1.56 trillion. However, Bitcoin dominance index is under pressure, indicating that funds are fleeing from mainstream coins into other asset classes, especially traditional safe-haven assets like gold.

Risk aversion drives asset rotation, gold and the dollar diverge

This Tuesday, market sentiment is dominated by expectations for US Q3 GDP data. Despite the US dollar index continuing to fall to 97.90 (down 0.39%), hitting a new low since early October, it has not stimulated a rebound in crypto demand. Instead, gold futures surged to $4,516, up 1.04%, approaching the psychological level of $4,500 per ounce.

Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Market Analyst at FxPro, pointed out that the underlying logic behind this phenomenon warrants attention: risk-avoidance sentiment is spreading globally. “The synchronized rise in gold and the decline of the dollar, along with the selling pressure in the bond market, clearly indicate a shift in fundamental risk sentiment,” he wrote in his commentary. This environment often signals increased pressure on emerging market stocks and currencies—as seen in US stock futures dipping slightly and signs of decline in Asian markets.

Crypto market under broad pressure, Bitcoin breaks psychological level

All 16 CoinDesk indices recorded declines over the past 24 hours, with the DeFi Select index down 4% and the Metaverse index dropping over 3%. Ethereum (ETH) is now priced at $2,380, down 11.42% in 24 hours, with a decline greater than Bitcoin’s. Solana (SOL) fell to $102.08, about 12.9% lower than the original record of $117.24.

Among the top 100 tokens by market cap, only HASH and RAIN achieved gains of over 6% in the past 24 hours. This highlights the current market dilemma: even amid a weakening dollar, the crypto market is experiencing systemic sell-offs. The decline in Bitcoin’s dominance reflects that investors, during risk-averse periods, prefer allocating to traditional safe-haven assets rather than betting on the crypto ecosystem.

US economic data will be key to reversing this trend. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its preliminary Q3 GDP estimate at 8:30 AM. Economists generally expect an annualized growth rate of 3.2%, with some institutions forecasting 3.5%. While this still indicates economic resilience, it is a slowdown from the 3.8% growth in Q2. If the data underperforms expectations, it could rekindle demand for Bitcoin as an inflation hedge, but whether it can break through the key resistance of $90,000 remains uncertain.

Technical signals show a rebound, but confirmation requires time

The Solana daily chart shows an interesting technical pattern: after breaking out of weeks of sideways consolidation, the price briefly dipped below support, then rebounded, trapping the bears in the wrong position. This is a classic Wyckoff spring pattern, often signaling weak selling pressure and a potential bullish reversal.

However, confirming this rebound signal requires the price to break through and stay above the upper boundary of the range. Currently, Solana is still consolidating, and the macro environment for the entire crypto market remains uncertain. The ETH/BTC ratio also declined 0.24% to 0.03388, indicating increased relative strength of Bitcoin, but absolute price momentum remains insufficient.

Capital flows diverge, ETF and governance tokens show unusual volatility

Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows of $142 million over the past day, but total net inflows remain at $57.25 billion, with about 131 million BTC in total assets. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of $84.6 million, with total assets reaching approximately 6.09 million ETH and a total net inflow of $12.55 billion.

This divergence in flows reflects differing market participant attitudes: cautiousness toward Bitcoin versus optimism about Ethereum ecosystem applications. Listed crypto companies also show mixed signals—Coinbase (COIN) rose 1.13% to $247.90, while Galaxy Digital (GLXY) fell to $24.49.

In governance tokens, Yearn DAO is voting on multiple proposals, including changing multisig signers and implementing the yETH rescue plan. Disputes over Aave DAO’s ownership of brand assets led to an 18% weekly decline, significantly exceeding mainstream crypto assets. This indicates governance risks and community disagreements are having a notable impact on the token prices of specific projects.

Key focus points and data outlook for this week

US GDP data, PCE inflation figures, and consumer confidence indices will be key macro catalysts this week. CME Fed Funds futures show current interest rate expectations remain relatively stable, likely limiting direct market impact, but economic growth data will influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policies in 2026.

Hashrate (7-day moving average) remains strong at 1,051 EH/s, with a post-difficulty adjustment price of $37.27. Although the hashrate has experienced its largest decline since April 2024 over the past 30 days, institutions like VanEck view this as a contrarian signal associated with miner capitulation—potentially indicating a local bottom.

In this risk-averse environment, Bitcoin’s dominance may remain under pressure for the time being. Only when macro risk sentiment improves or the crypto ecosystem itself sees significant developments (such as innovative applications or institutional breakthroughs) can Bitcoin’s relative appeal be restored. Currently, the weakness of gold and the dollar in the background underscores the uniqueness of this cycle: Bitcoin’s challenge to its dominant position is less about competitors rising and more about the overall decline in demand for risk assets.