Breaking! $BTC breaks through institutional "bottom line," 330,000 people liquidated overnight, a series of global black swan events are triggering chain reactions

A key psychological defense line in the market has been breached. Not long ago, the price of $BTC briefly fell below $76,000, marking its first breach of a widely watched institutional holding cost line in two and a half years, and the first time since April last year that it has fallen below $80,000. It is just one step away from the previous cycle’s low point.

Data is cold. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount of cryptocurrency contracts across the network approached $2.2 billion, with over 335,000 investors forced to liquidate. Among them, $ETH liquidations amounted to about $961 million, and $BTC liquidations reached $679 million. Some whale addresses once closely watched by the market also were not spared, from “Brother Maji” to the address called “CZ’s opponent,” and to the so-called “insider big shot” who precisely shorted after the “1011” flash crash. Tens of millions to over a billion dollars in profits instantly vanished, even turning into losses.

Meanwhile, as $ETH price once dipped to $2,240, the 650,000+ $ETH held by Yi Li Hua’s Trend Research saw unrealized losses peak at nearly $1.2 billion. Although the liquidation price for its collateralized lending position was set at $1,558, in the current fragile market sentiment, this distance is not out of reach.

This turbulence is not an isolated event. Looking at global financial markets, volatility is equally intense. Gold and silver spot prices experienced rare declines over decades within a single trading day, just because Microsoft’s cloud business growth slowed by 1% month-over-month, causing Microsoft’s market cap to evaporate over $350 billion. These exaggerated figures reveal a reality: funds are highly concentrated in a few top assets, the market nerves are taut, and any tiny crack could trigger a stampede.

Geopolitical risks are intensifying. Explosions at key Iranian ports, instability in the Strait of Hormuz which handles about 20% of global maritime oil, combined with US-Iran conflicts, further heighten market concerns over Middle East tensions.

And domestic US political deadlock could bring more direct shocks. Analysts point out that the House Democrats have informed Republican leadership they will not assist in passing the current funding plan. This could lead to the US government entering its second prolonged shutdown within months. Although this news came after the market decline, multiple uncertainties combined with the thin liquidity environment over the weekend mean that even without large-scale selling, chain liquidations can be triggered. Hedge funds have been observed transferring large amounts of $BTC to exchanges.

A deeper confidence crisis may stem from regulation. Since the “10·11” incident, the performance of the crypto market has lagged behind stocks, precious metals, and other traditional assets. One market structure bill, once highly anticipated but ultimately imposing the same regulatory strength on crypto assets as securities, is considered one of the reasons.

Regulatory clarification is killing certain illusions. The US Securities and Exchange Commission recently issued guidelines explicitly stating that tokenized stocks will be subject to the same regulatory rules as regular stocks, effectively ending hopes for “light regulation.”

A more fundamental question concerns $BTC’s own asset nature. In the past, it sometimes followed tech stocks, sometimes gold. But since October last year, $BTC has neither kept pace with US stocks rising due to the AI boom nor followed gold soaring due to geopolitical risks. Whether investors chase growth or seek safe havens, there seem to be clearer options than $BTC. The two-week net outflow of nearly $3 billion from spot $BTC ETFs indirectly confirms that interest from funds is waning.

By 2026, it will become an ultimate test of the resilience of the crypto market. A thorough reshuffle may not be a bad thing for the industry at this stage.

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