The Market is Holding Steady: Employment Data and Tariff Strategies Will Change Bitcoin Direction

This week presents critical decisions that will set the trajectory for the crypto market. While traders await key economic data and government policy statements, Bitcoin and the entire crypto landscape are preparing for a potential major move. Such moments highlight how traditional economics and political decisions directly impact digital asset valuations.

Major Determinants That Will Change the Market

The most significant event is the release of the US nonfarm payroll report in the morning, an economic indicator that regularly draws the attention of the Federal Reserve and market participants. According to FactSet consensus, analysts expect the economy to have added 55,000 jobs last month. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease to 4.5% from the previous 4.6%, while average hourly earnings are projected to rise by 3.6% year-over-year.

Context is critical: the Fed has justified recent rate cuts by pointing to weakness in the labor market. If new data shows weaker employment figures than expected, it will strengthen market conviction that the Fed will continue its rate-cutting cycle. Such a scenario is positive for risk assets like Bitcoin, as lower interest rates make digital assets more attractive as alternative investments.

On the other hand, the Supreme Court decision regarding tariff authority will be the second major market stance. Our highest court must decide whether President Donald Trump has legal standing to use emergency powers to impose broad trade tariffs. Kalshi prediction markets indicate only a 28% probability that the court will fully support the tariff regime. If the decision is against tariffs, risk appetite could receive a boost, pushing Bitcoin and other crypto assets higher. However, some observers suggest this stance may only be temporary relief, and that the Trump administration has other means to continue its aggressive trade policy.

While the market makes such big decisions, Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, will speak publicly about the Fed’s policy trajectory and inflation implications. His remarks will add to the landscape of hints on how monetary policy might move in the coming months.

Bitcoin and Altcoin: Where Is the Price Focus?

Bitcoin is currently trading at $79,010, down a significant 6.01% in the past 24 hours. This data shows a more volatile market environment compared to last week, when BTC was hovering around the $90,000 range with a more optimistic tone.

Major altcoins are following the downside movement. Solana has fallen 10.05% to $105.78, while Ethereum has dropped 9.32% toward $2.46K. XRP is adjusting to $1.67, and BNB has declined to $785.80. This market-wide pullback indicates heightened risk-off sentiment that could persist until economic signals and the Supreme Court ruling become clearer.

Bitcoin’s dominance remains stable at 59.08%, indicating that Bitcoin holders are not panic-selling at a larger rate compared to the altcoin market. This could be a bullish signal that core conviction in digital assets remains strong even in a volatile environment.

What the Chart Shows: XRP and Other Assets

The technical picture shows a weakening trend across major pairs. On the daily XRP chart, the recent rebound has lost strength right at the trendline drawn from historical highs, confirming a broader bearish trajectory. Prices need to overcome resistance to confirm a shift from bearish to bullish structure.

This technical setup suggests the market is waiting for a catalyst. The tariff decision and employment data could provide a breakthrough event that accelerates price action in either direction.

Bitcoin Metrics: The Real Story Behind the Price

On-chain indicators offer a nuanced view. Bitcoin’s hashrate is hovering around an average of 1,036 EH/s (seven-day moving), reflecting consistent security on the network. The hash price is $39.04, indicating the current mining profitability landscape.

CME Bitcoin futures open interest has reached 114,020 BTC, suggesting significant institutional positioning. This level of participation shows that traditional financial players are actively hedging or speculating on Bitcoin’s direction.

Crypto Firms and Traditional Markets: How They Respond to the Economy

Crypto-related companies show mixed performance. Coinbase Global closed at $245.59, while Circle Internet rose 1.49% to $81.79. Galaxy Digital moved minimally at $25.50, and MicroStrategy increased 3.18% to $166.97, reflecting its strategic Bitcoin holdings.

Mining firms have a more positive tone. CORE Scientific rose 2.71%, and CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI) increased 2.74%, indicating a sector with a positive outlook for mining operations in the medium term.

In broader markets, US equity indices show mixed signals. Dow Jones closed up 0.55% at 49,266.11, while S&P 500 was flat at 6,921.46, and Nasdaq declined 0.44%. The 10-year Treasury yield increased by 5 basis points to 4.18%, reflecting market expectations for economic growth and inflation.

Institutional Money: Where Is the Big Money Going

ETF flows reveal institutional investor sentiment. US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of $398.8 million on the last day, marking the third consecutive day of withdrawals. This reverses earlier trends this month when inflows reached $1 billion, sparking optimism among analysts about institutional adoption.

Ethereum spot ETFs also experienced a net outflow of $159.2 million, indicating that ether is part of the risk-off move. Total BTC holdings in spot Bitcoin ETFs are around 1.3 million, while ETH holdings are 6.16 million. The scale of this institutional positioning means that any major price move will also be reflected in asset management flows.

The USD index has a bullish technical setup, with the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day average—a golden cross pattern that historically preceded bullish runs. If this pattern holds, it could put pressure on alternative assets as dollar strength makes imports more expensive for US investors.

Other Markets and Geopolitical Context

While the market focuses on domestic economic data and court rulings, international developments add layers of complexity. Russia announced the use of nuclear-capable missiles against Ukraine, an escalation that adds a geopolitical risk premium to safe-haven assets. Iran shut down the internet to suppress rising protests over economic deterioration and increasing living costs—actions that underscore global economic stress.

In the crypto sphere, builders behind the popular Zcash wallet announced a new startup venture aimed at accelerating product development within a commercial model framework, reflecting evolving governance structures in privacy-focused projects.

SharpLink, an Ethereum treasury firm, deposited $170 million worth of ETH into the Linea network, executing a strategic plan combining Ethereum staking and restaking with the Linea incentive structure to generate yield on treasury holdings. This institutional participation demonstrates confidence in scaling solutions and Layer 2 development.

This week will be decisive for the direction of the crypto market. Employment data will signal the Fed’s rate path, while the Supreme Court tariff decision will determine the US economic growth trajectory and risk appetite. For investors, market stance on these events will be a crucial determinant of portfolio allocation decisions in the coming quarters.