Bitcoin has reached a point where it seems to be caught in a profound paradox. It was originally born out of a desire to resist central banks' excessive money printing and to defend individual property rights, championing decentralization and anonymity. But ironically, its success has increasingly come to depend on the very system it once opposed. It has signed a Faustian contract with Wall Street and regulators. There are three core costs. First is the dissipation of the "revolutionary premium." When Bitcoin is included in retirement funds via ETFs, and major institutions become large holders, it shifts from an outsider rebel to an asset within the system. Its price movements begin to synchronize with tech stocks and decouple from gold. It no longer fights the system; instead, its value increasingly relies on the stability and acceptance of the existing financial system. Second is the fundamental change in growth logic. The past volatility caused by small markets and poor liquidity—multiples of hundreds—may never return. Deep-pocketed institutional capital brings stability but also suppresses volatility and expected returns. Historical data is clear: the multiples of each bull market are decreasing. Future growth may be slower and more institutionalized. Third, and most critically, is the erosion of the foundational belief. True decentralization requires you to control your private keys. But the current situation is that most people hold assets through exchanges or ETFs, effectively entrusting their assets to third parties. The number of active on-chain addresses declines even as prices hit new highs, warning that the rally is driven by giant capital rather than widespread grassroots adoption. Losing this social consensus foundation makes its store of value narrative hollow. Institutionalization is a double-edged sword. It brings massive funds and stability but also systematically suppresses volatility and expected returns. Looking back, each Bitcoin bull market's gains have sharply declined: from hundreds of times in early days, to twenty times in the last cycle, and about seven times so far in this cycle. The market has transformed from a "small pond" easily moved by capital to a "deep sea" filled with institutions. Therefore, expecting it to reproduce the disruptive, exponential surges of the past may be unrealistic. Future growth is likely to be more gradual and more constrained by macroeconomic factors and policies. $btc
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Bitcoin has reached a point where it seems to be caught in a profound paradox. It was originally born out of a desire to resist central banks' excessive money printing and to defend individual property rights, championing decentralization and anonymity. But ironically, its success has increasingly come to depend on the very system it once opposed. It has signed a Faustian contract with Wall Street and regulators. There are three core costs. First is the dissipation of the "revolutionary premium." When Bitcoin is included in retirement funds via ETFs, and major institutions become large holders, it shifts from an outsider rebel to an asset within the system. Its price movements begin to synchronize with tech stocks and decouple from gold. It no longer fights the system; instead, its value increasingly relies on the stability and acceptance of the existing financial system. Second is the fundamental change in growth logic. The past volatility caused by small markets and poor liquidity—multiples of hundreds—may never return. Deep-pocketed institutional capital brings stability but also suppresses volatility and expected returns. Historical data is clear: the multiples of each bull market are decreasing. Future growth may be slower and more institutionalized. Third, and most critically, is the erosion of the foundational belief. True decentralization requires you to control your private keys. But the current situation is that most people hold assets through exchanges or ETFs, effectively entrusting their assets to third parties. The number of active on-chain addresses declines even as prices hit new highs, warning that the rally is driven by giant capital rather than widespread grassroots adoption. Losing this social consensus foundation makes its store of value narrative hollow. Institutionalization is a double-edged sword. It brings massive funds and stability but also systematically suppresses volatility and expected returns. Looking back, each Bitcoin bull market's gains have sharply declined: from hundreds of times in early days, to twenty times in the last cycle, and about seven times so far in this cycle. The market has transformed from a "small pond" easily moved by capital to a "deep sea" filled with institutions. Therefore, expecting it to reproduce the disruptive, exponential surges of the past may be unrealistic. Future growth is likely to be more gradual and more constrained by macroeconomic factors and policies. $btc