U.S. Cryptocurrency Market Timeline: Bond Reversal, the New Cycle Begins

The past 24 hours have seen the US cryptocurrency market fall into a quiet consolidation. During trading hours in the Eastern Time Zone, the market has exhibited a strange equilibrium—price volatility has narrowed, and investors seem to be waiting for a key moment to arrive. Currently, Bitcoin is quoted at $78.61K (down 6.38% over 24 hours), Ethereum at $2.43K (down 9.92% over 24 hours), and the entire market is shrouded in a wait-and-see sentiment.

This short-term silence cannot hide a larger macro reality: over the entire period this year, Bitcoin has fallen 7%, while the seemingly ordinary 10-year US Treasury yield has risen 2.5%. This contrast reveals a thought-provoking fact—on the time dimension of the US market, traditional fixed-income assets have actually outperformed digital assets. Despite major US institutions recently making large purchases of Bitcoin, this still seems insufficient to change the overall market rhythm.

The Time Logic of Bonds Surpassing

The strength of the US 10-year Treasury is not an isolated event. From a macroeconomic cycle perspective, the robust performance of bonds as traditional safe-haven assets sends a clear timing signal to the entire US financial market: economic expectations are changing. Market concerns have shifted from “when will rate hikes stop” to “when will a recession arrive.”

Within this special time window, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has maintained surprising resilience, quoted at 99.81, remaining steadily above the 200-day moving average. This technical resilience, despite expectations of a possible Fed rate cut, demonstrates market confidence in the dollar through actual actions. In other words, on the US financial market’s timeline, expectations of rate cuts have not yet fully offset the long-term bullish sentiment toward the dollar.

Options Market’s Time Hints

Recently, the US options market has shown some interesting timing signals. Earlier this week, traders engaged in intensive hedging around Bitcoin put options (strike price $80,000), followed by a large trade suggesting a potential surge above $100,000. These closely linked trading activities depict conflicting expectations among market participants—preparing for a decline but also not ruling out a quick rebound.

On Tuesday during US trading hours, traders simultaneously bought Bitcoin call options with strike prices of $220,000 and $40,000. This seemingly contradictory action actually reflects bets on volatility itself. According to the analysis platform Greeks.Live, the real betting logic points toward a spike in volatility rather than a single-direction trend. Within the US options market’s timeframe, this indicates institutional investors are preparing for upcoming changes.

New Opportunities in the US Policy Window

An often-overlooked US policy signal deserves attention. A recent regulation for US banks—reducing capital adequacy requirements for low-risk assets like US Treasuries—is quietly changing the asset allocation timeline for US financial institutions. This policy is widely interpreted as a “liquidity thaw” signal, aiming to release funds within the US banking system and increase bond market intervention during periods of pressure.

James Thorne, Chief Market Strategist at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, views this step as a prelude to an “imminent de-regulation era.” In other words, US policymakers are preemptively arming themselves for potential market turbulence. Within this time window, the resilience of the financial system may be stronger than market participants expect.

Technical Time Verification

Looking at the daily chart of the US Dollar Index, the indicator has remained above the 200-day moving average despite a series of weak US economic data. Poor US ADP employment figures and rising probability of Fed rate cuts in December are typically bearish for the dollar, yet they have not shaken its technical strength. This is a classic “market ignoring bad news” scenario—often a sign that the US market is about to experience a larger correction or a reversal.

For Bitcoin, traders are closely watching two key price levels: $88,000 and $102,000. These levels are seen as important reference points for recent US market turning points. If Bitcoin falls below the support at $83,000, the US market could confirm a deeper downside risk.

Real-Time Snapshot of the US Market

Major Crypto Assets (US Eastern Time, February 1, 2026):

• Bitcoin: $78.61K (24h -6.38%)
• Ethereum: $2.43K (24h -9.92%)
• CoinDesk 20 Index: mixed performance, some tokens remain resilient

US Macro Assets:

• US 10-year Treasury yield: 4.008%
• US Dollar Index (DXY): 99.81 (+0.14%)
• Gold futures: $4,194.40 (+0.41%)
• Silver futures: $52.74 (+2.15%)

Major US Stock Indices (Tuesday close):

• Nasdaq Composite: 23,025.59 (+0.67%)
• S&P 500: 6,765.88 (+0.91%)
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 47,112.45 (+1.43%)

US Crypto-Related Listed Companies’ Timing Divergence

US-listed crypto companies show mixed performance during this trading session. Riot Platforms (RIOT) led the gains, up 3.67%, while Coinbase Global (COIN) declined slightly by 0.72%. This divergence reflects differing market attitudes toward various sectors. Bitcoin mining companies like Riot still attract capital under current price pressures, whereas integrated exchanges may face expectations of declining user activity.

Institutional Funds Flow Timing Indicators

US Spot Bitcoin ETF (daily data):

• Net inflow: $128.7 million
• Total net inflow: $5.759 billion
• Circulating BTC: approximately 1.31 million coins

US Spot Ethereum ETF (daily data):

• Net inflow: $78.6 million
• Total net inflow: $12.83 billion
• Circulating ETH: approximately 6.2 million coins

Data from US-based Farside Investors indicates that US institutional investors continue to adhere to a buy-the-dip strategy, despite short-term market pressure. The net inflow at this time point may suggest that their confidence in longer-term cycles remains intact.

Next Time Cycle for the US Market

In the next 24 to 48 hours in US time, several key macroeconomic data releases are expected. The direction of US economic data and any clues from Federal Reserve policy guidance could trigger a new wave of volatility in the crypto market. Traditional indicators like durable goods orders and initial unemployment claims are increasingly linked to crypto market movements.

From a longer US time horizon, the market is at a crossroads. The strength of bonds, resilience of the dollar, and subtle policy adjustments all point toward a possible evolution—US financial markets may soon enter a new cycle phase. For global crypto investors closely watching the US market, understanding the deeper logic behind these timing coincidences is far more important than chasing short-term price fluctuations.