Policy risk drives funds to seek safety: Gold heats up, Bitcoin underperforms

Market sentiment has shifted into a defensive stance. Faced with rising macroeconomic uncertainties, investors are undergoing a major asset rebalancing—favoring safe-haven assets such as gold and precious metals while reducing allocations to high-risk assets like Bitcoin. This trend reflects a deeper psychological change: when economic outlooks become blurred, a sense of security suddenly becomes a scarce resource.

According to early February 2026 market data, Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $78.55K, with a 24-hour decline of -5.18%. Meanwhile, gold futures rose to around $4,500 per ounce, and silver futures increased by 1.66%. In stark contrast, the overall token market performance was weak: Ethereum (ETH) price dropped to $2.41K (-8.60%/24h), and Solana (SOL) hovered around $104.78. CoinDesk’s 16 market indices all declined over the past 24 hours, with the DeFi Select index down 4% and the Metaverse index dropping over 3%.

Liquidity Shift and Deep Market Psychology Changes

What’s most intriguing about this “safe-haven seeking” behavior is that the US Dollar Index (DXY) is also declining, breaking below 98.00 and approaching its lowest point since October. According to traditional theory, a weak dollar usually benefits risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. But the reality is different.

“Against the backdrop of a falling dollar and strong gains in gold and other precious metals, Bitcoin remains stagnant, which fully indicates a fundamental shift in market attitude towards risk assets,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Market Analyst at FxPro. “The sharp sell-off in the global bond markets further confirms this.”

Kuptsikevich further warns: “In the coming weeks, we may see further declines in cryptocurrencies, and this risk aversion will likely spread to equities and emerging market currencies.”

For the crypto market, this means liquidity (piscine de liquidité) is being reallocated from risk to safety. In the DeFi ecosystem, liquidity pools of trading pairs are facing reassessment, especially during cooling market sentiment, as users tend to withdraw from yield-related positions, leading to deteriorating liquidity conditions for certain trading pairs.

Macro Data as a Key Market Turning Point

US economic data will be a major driver today. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is scheduled to release the Q3 GDP preliminary estimate at 8:30 AM Eastern Time. Economists generally expect an annualized growth rate of 3.2%, with some institutions even predicting up to 3.5%. This would represent a slowdown from Q2’s 3.8%, but still above the long-term average of 2.6% since the end of 2021.

If GDP data underperform, it could provide a short-term rebound opportunity for Bitcoin. However, whether it can sustain above $90,000 remains uncertain—this level has recently become a clear resistance.

Also to be released are the second estimate of the US Consumer Price Index (PCE) and durable goods orders data. The release of this macro data series will offer new references for Federal Reserve policy outlooks, thereby influencing cross-asset allocation decisions.

New Trends in Token Governance and Liquidity Deployment

Important votes are closing this week in DeFi governance:

Yearn DAO’s YIP-89 and YIP-90 proposals will address multisig signer rotation and the implementation of the yETH recovery plan (voting closes December 23). The latter involves compensating users through treasury yields, 10% revenue redirection, and reclaiming abandoned claims.

GMX DAO is voting on whether to allocate 400,000 USDC to the new GMX-Solana deployment, with half used to purchase GMX tokens to build an initial liquidity pool (piscine) balance (voting closes December 23). This proposal reflects ongoing DeFi project investments across multiple chains.

Aave DAO’s vote (closes December 26) involves the full ownership recovery of brand assets—including domain names, social accounts, and naming rights—transferring these assets from service providers like Aave Labs to DAO-controlled entities to prevent private misuse.

Meanwhile, the Phase 5 token buyback plan for the Aster project has been launched, offering new participation opportunities.

Solana Technical Outlook: Signs of Market Fatigue

SOL’s daily chart recently shows a classic technical signal. After weeks of sideways consolidation, the price broke downward, only to rebound sharply the next day, trapping short-sellers. This is a textbook Wyckoff Reversal—selling pressure is waning, often indicating an upcoming bullish reversal.

However, confirmation of the reversal still requires: the price must break above the upper boundary of the consolidation channel to establish a bullish trend. In the current risk-averse environment, even positive technical signals face increased difficulty in actual breakout.

Subtle Balance in Traditional Markets

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures remain relatively flat, indicating a lack of directional conviction. Historically, the last trading day of the year often brings a “Santa Claus rally,” but this year’s traditional effect faces a stern test amid risk sentiment.

Stock market performance is mixed:

• Nasdaq Composite closed last week up 0.52% at 23,428.83
• S&P 500 up 0.64% at 6,878.49
• Dow Jones Industrial up 0.47% at 48,362.68
• Nikkei 225 roughly unchanged at 50,412.87
• Hang Seng Index slightly down 0.11% at 25,774.14

The US 10-year Treasury yield fell 2.6 basis points to 4.145%, reflecting cautious expectations about economic growth.

Divergent Performance of Crypto-Related Assets

Crypto-listed companies also show mixed signals. Coinbase Global (COIN) closed Monday at $247.90 (+1.13%) but retreated to $246.49 in pre-market trading. Circle Internet (CRCL) closed at $87.00 (+1.01%), and Galaxy Digital (GLXY) gained the most, up 2.54% to $24.61.

In Bitcoin treasury companies, MicroStrategy (MSTR) performed steadily, closing at $164.32 (-0.30%). Such stocks tend to track Bitcoin’s long-term trend rather than short-term volatility.

ETF Flows: Early Signs of Institutional Attitudes

Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $142.2 million in the past 24 hours but have accumulated net inflows of $57.25 billion, with a total holding of about 1.31 million BTC. This indicates that despite recent short-term selling pressure, institutional holdings remain substantial.

Spot Ethereum ETFs attracted $84.6 million in net inflows, with total holdings reaching about 6.09 million ETH and net inflows totaling $1.255 billion. This may reflect some investors’ confidence in Ethereum’s long-term prospects.

Market Monitoring and Real-Time Dynamics

Bitcoin dominance remains steady at 59.58%, indicating the market still centers around BTC. ETH/BTC ratio has fallen to 0.03388 (-0.24%), reflecting Bitcoin’s relative strength.

Hash rate (7-day moving average) stays high at 1,051 EH/s, and spot hash price is $37.27/EH, showing miners remain active despite overall market sentiment. Total BTC transaction fees reach 2.55 BTC (about $227,479).

CME futures open interest stands at 112,885 BTC, indicating ongoing institutional participation in futures markets.

Key Developments Tonight

During the Americas’ market lull, important news from the Asia-Pacific region emerged: Bitcoin contrasts sharply with gold and copper, driven by “fear and AI markets,” with tangible assets performing strongly. “Investors seeking safety and growth seem to have reached an unexpected consensus in 2025: Bitcoin has neither captured safe trades nor fully represented the growth story,” CoinDesk’s latest analysis states.

Meanwhile, miner capitulation is viewed as a potential contrarian indicator. VanEck research shows the largest hash rate decline since April 2024 over the past 30 days, a phenomenon historically associated with miner capitulation and approaching local market bottoms.

Additionally, Aave (AAVE) tokens have fallen 18% this week, far outpacing other mainstream crypto assets, due to governance disputes over brand control and ownership of public communication channels. Despite recent $12.6 million purchases by founder Stani Kulechov, market sentiment remains unsettled.

The wave of risk aversion is spreading through the crypto markets, and Bitcoin appears to be at a disadvantage in this defensive phase.