Bitcoin Market Adjustment: A Critical Moment for Canada's Economic Index and Global Crypto Trends

At the beginning of 2026, the crypto market is in a critical adjustment phase. After experiencing a short-term rebound at the end of last year, Bitcoin has now fallen to around $78,300, down more than 12% from its high three weeks ago. This decline not only reflects technical pressure in the market but also deeper concerns about rising global macroeconomic uncertainties—including economic indicator trends in major economies like Canada.

Global Macro Background: Turning Points in Canadian Indices and Market Sentiment

Originally driven by optimistic market sentiment at the end of December, crypto assets are now facing pressure from multiple directions. As a G7 member, Canada’s economic data significantly influences global risk appetite. Last month’s economic reports from Canada showed that key indicators such as the PPI (Producer Price Index) underperformed expectations, signaling a slowdown in North American economic growth.

This weakening macroeconomic data has directly impacted risk asset allocations. Investors’ concerns about the global economic outlook have prompted a shift of funds from high-risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) to traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. Treasuries. Gold futures have broken through $4,440 per ounce, reaching a historic high, while the U.S. dollar index hovers at 98.48, reflecting a sharp adjustment in global capital flows.

Technical Outlook: Risks of Bitcoin Breaking Key Support

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s recent price action is increasingly concerning. The current price has broken below the upward trendline formed since the November 21 low, which was previously considered a crucial support level. Trading volume data shows that during Bitcoin’s rebound from the November low of $75,000 to $89,800, volume did not effectively increase, indicating a lack of institutional support for the rally.

Short-term technical indicators show that Bitcoin’s slight downward channel has been recently broken, with selling momentum gradually releasing. Although bullish sentiment persists, analysts generally warn that breaking below the upward trendline opens the possibility of probing lower resistance levels around $92,000 to $95,000. FxPro’s chief analyst pointed out that Bitcoin’s current decline has approached 30% since the beginning of the year, and this correction, relative to the year’s expectations, should not be simply viewed as a “rebound.”

Core Event Drivers: Options Expiry and Governance Votes

This week, the market faces two key catalysts. First, Deribit exchange will settle Bitcoin and Ethereum options totaling $27 billion on Friday. Data shows that over 50% of Deribit’s open interest is involved, with a call-to-put ratio of about 3:1, indicating a still bullish market outlook—but also potentially setting the stage for a “bull trap.”

Second, several important governance votes are underway within the crypto ecosystem. BNB Chain is voting on whether to reduce validator block rewards from 16 to 8, aiming to prevent large on-chain reorganizations and enhance network stability. Meanwhile, Uniswap’s UNI token has experienced a price drop of over 1% following a proposal to activate protocol fee switches, reflecting market divisions over this aggressive revenue model adjustment.

Projects like Axie Infinity, Moonwell DAO, and CoW DAO are also conducting governance decisions involving fund allocations and community incentive mechanisms. These votes reflect a “self-correcting” trend within the crypto ecosystem amid the bear market but also serve as a reminder for investors to watch for volatility in related tokens.

Market Data Overview: From Boom to Adjustment

Market data has shifted significantly:

Bitcoin is currently at $78,300, down 5.07% in 24 hours, with a weekly low of $75,680 from a high of $82,920. Ethereum is weaker, down 8.80% to $2,390, showing relative weakness compared to altcoins. The CoinDesk 20 index has only a 0.76% daily gain, indicating insufficient momentum for a mainstream asset rebound.

Major tokens like XRP and SOL have seen small increases, generally less than 1-2%, unable to offset technical rebounds in small-cap coins like HYPE and KAS. Bitcoin’s market dominance has fallen to 56.64%, a recent low.

Notably, Bitcoin’s hash rate remains high at 1.045EH/s, indicating miners have not significantly reduced computational power. However, the current hash price (daily reward per TH) has fallen to $38.24, marking a historic low in mining profitability.

In ETF flows, spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced an average daily outflow of $158.3 million, with total net inflows still at $57.39 billion, but this pattern of “high outflows” often signals profit-taking by institutional investors at market highs. Ethereum ETFs have also seen a daily net outflow of $75.9 million.

Global Market Resonance and Crypto’s Relative Performance

Global stock markets show mixed performance, reflecting divergent expectations about the global economy. U.S. tech stocks led gains, with the Nasdaq up 1.31% to 23,307 points, but the S&P 500 rose only 0.88% to 6,834 points, and the Dow Jones increased by just 0.38%. This “large-cap vs. small-cap” divergence partly indicates declining risk appetite.

In Asia-Pacific, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.81% to 50,402, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index barely increased 0.43% to 25,801, reflecting ongoing concerns about China’s economic outlook. European markets performed poorly, with the UK FTSE down 0.37% and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.17%.

Canada’s stock market saw the TSX Composite rise 1% to 31,755, but this seemingly optimistic performance must be interpreted alongside Canada’s economic fundamentals. The trajectory of Canada’s PPI, especially deviations from annual expectations, exerts inverse pressure on commodity prices, affecting valuations of energy and raw material assets.

Macro Risks and Key 24-Hour Market Events

This week, the U.S. economic calendar includes the Q3 GDP final estimate and consumer confidence data on Tuesday, and unemployment claims on Wednesday. While these indicators are limited in scale, in the context of low liquidity at year-end, they can trigger significant market volatility. Notably, U.S. long-term Treasury yields have risen to 4.169%, indicating a re-pricing of Federal Reserve policy expectations.

For crypto investors, it is crucial to recognize the transmission of economic data from G7 economies like Canada to global risk sentiment. When economic indicators in major economies show signs of slowing growth, global capital tends to shift toward safe assets, which directly depresses valuations of risk assets like Bitcoin.

Key Focus for Investors

Current analyst consensus is generally cautious. Although short-term rebounds offer technical optimism, these signals must be viewed against the backdrop of a “30% decline since the start of the year.” Bitcoin’s price at the beginning of the year was around $93,400; the current price remains over 15% below that, indicating that the rebound is more a correction of oversold conditions rather than a trend reversal.

Crypto stocks, especially mining companies like Riot Platforms, Core Scientific, and CleanSpark, have performed relatively well, gaining 7-8% over the week, mainly reflecting technical rebounds after valuation overselling. Coinbase Global and other exchange stocks are somewhat stable, but overall, institutional interest in crypto ecosystems has noticeably waned.

Market Outlook: Waiting for Confirmation Signals

Whether Bitcoin can rebuild an upward trend depends on whether it can effectively break through the resistance zone of $92,000 to $95,000. However, based on macro data like Canada’s economic indicators, short-term risk appetite recovery faces significant hurdles. The simultaneous rise in gold and the dollar suggests that global risk aversion still dominates the market.

The next phase of crypto market movement will depend on whether global economic data—especially the performance of indices in developed economies like Canada—stabilizes and whether there are major adjustments in Federal Reserve policy expectations. Until then, investors should remain cautious and be alert to short-term volatility triggered by options expiries and governance votes.