Are you still waiting for Bitcoin to reach 30K?

Wake up, that era is gone.

Last weekend, I chatted with a few old hands and discovered an interesting phenomenon. They hold cash in hand, eagerly waiting for BTC to drop to $30,000 to buy the dip. When asked why $30,000, their answers are pretty much the same: the last bear market fell 77%, so this time it should fall at least 80%, right?

I spent an entire week dissecting every cycle of Bitcoin from 2009 to now. I uncovered a truth that makes all the dip buyers despair.

Bitcoin's "decline percentage" is decreasing according to a mathematical pattern.

The first cycle dropped 93%, the second 87%, the third 84%, the fourth 77%.

Each time, the decline narrows, and the magnitude gets smaller.

This is not a coincidence; it is inevitable.

Because the market cap is getting larger, players are becoming more rational, and institutions are increasing.

In 2020, there was panic selling by retail investors. But this time? BlackRock, MicroStrategy, El Salvador—who would sell at 30K?

They are eager for you to sell so they can buy the dip.

I calculated that, following this decreasing pattern, the maximum drawdown in this cycle is likely between 55% and 65%.

That means if the top is at $130,000, the bottom would be at most $40,000 to $60,000.

30K? Unless a systemic collapse occurs, you'll be waiting forever.

Even more heartbreaking, even if it really drops to 30K, you won't dare to buy.

Because at that time, either exchanges will run away, regulations will hit hard, or there will be a technical crash.

The true bottom often passes when you think "it can go lower."

In the 2020 pandemic crash to $3,800, which lasted a few hours? Most people couldn't even log into their exchanges.

In 2022, when FTX collapsed and Bitcoin fell to $15,500, did you dare to buy? The headlines were full of "Bitcoin is zero."

So, instead of waiting for a possibly never-coming 30K, it's better to position in the lower band of the $60K-$70K channel.

This is the rational way to buy the dip in this era.

Cycles are changing, patterns are changing, but human nature remains the same.

Most people are always waiting for a "cheaper price," and as a result, they miss the entire bull market.

Remember, the market won't give you the price you want; it will give you the price you deserve.

And what you deserve is often much higher than you imagine. #加密市场回调 $BTC