Economists Diverge: US GDP Growth Could Reach 6% in 2026

Optimistic forecasts for the US GDP’s economic performance for 2026 are gaining momentum among American authorities. Recently in Davos, Switzerland, government officials expressed ambitious expectations for the North American economy in the upcoming period.

Lutnick Projects Accelerated GDP Growth Above 5%

In early January, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick shared his optimistic outlook during the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum. According to his assessment, US GDP growth is expected to surpass 5% in the first quarter of 2026, representing a significant advance for an economy of such impressive size as the American one.

Lutnick not only projected this growth but also argued that current circumstances could allow for even greater gains. In his view, if current interest rates were reduced, GDP could potentially expand above 6%, reaching even more robust levels. This perspective reflects the executive’s confidence in the American economic recovery under more favorable conditions.

High Interest Rates Limit Growth Potential

Lutnick’s position emphasizes a critical point for the economy: current high-interest conditions are restraining the potential growth of US GDP. According to his analysis, these rates hinder economic expansion that could occur in an environment with lower capital costs.

The issue of interest rates, therefore, is a key factor in the difference between a 5% growth and the possibility of reaching 6%. For the economy to truly thrive and maximize its wealth-generation potential, an adjustment in current monetary policies would be necessary, according to the secretary’s understanding.

Official Perspectives Diverge: Besant Presents a More Conservative View

There is no absolute consensus among American policymakers regarding projections for the US GDP in 2026. Treasury Secretary Besant presented slightly different estimates during the same Davos event. His forecast indicates that real GDP growth could range between 4% and 5% for the upcoming year.

This divergence of perspectives, although within a relatively close margin, reflects different assessments of the economic scenario. While Lutnick sees potential for robust growth above 5%, with a possibility of reaching 6%, Besant offers more moderate estimates, placing US GDP growth in a 4% to 5% range.

The difference in GDP growth projections between the two officials illustrates the ongoing debate about the most appropriate economic policies to maximize the performance of the North American economy in the coming quarters.