BTC Dynamics in February 2026: Understanding Price Parallels

Bitcoin continues to attract the attention of analysts with its price dynamics, which are increasingly being compared to events from four years ago. As of now, BTC is trading at $77.51K with a short-term negative shift of -0.99%. Many market participants see a striking similarity between the current developments and the price behavior of 2022. However, a detailed analysis shows that while the current dynamics have visual parallels, they also contain a number of fundamental differences that significantly impact the outlook for development.

Visual Similarity and Its Limits

At first glance, the resemblance is indeed impressive. If you overlay the current price movements onto the 2022 chart, you can notice an almost perfect reproduction of the wave structure. The shape of upward and downward impulses, the amplitude of pullbacks, the overall pattern of the chart — all of this creates the illusion that history is repeating itself. Such fractal patterns in technical analysis often form the basis for forecasting. However, visual coincidence is only the first layer of analysis and far from the most decisive.

Lack of Contact with Key Support Levels

The fundamental difference lies in technical details. In 2022, the BTC price already tested and contacted the 50-week moving average (equivalent to the 200-day SMA) — a critical long-term support level. This contact was a clear signal of the depth of the correction and the strength of the recovery. Currently, such contact has not yet occurred. The price remains above this important level, which means the market has not yet reached the extreme exhaustion point that characterized 2022. This simple but crucial difference radically changes the interpretation of the fractal.

Time Frame: A Month to Target Levels

The second fundamental point is the factor of time. If we synchronize the peak of 2022 with the October maximum of 2025, the temporal architecture of the pattern suggests an interesting observation: the current dynamics have about one calendar month left to complete the cycle. This period is theoretically sufficient for the final upward impulse to unfold and for the price to reach the long-awaited contact with the 50-week or 200-day SMA. In other words, the current phase may not be the end of the process but the last movement before the final formation of a local maximum.

Development Scenario and Cautionary Requirements

Based on the analysis, the basic scenario suggests the possibility of one more final upward impulse. Such development does not contradict fractal logic or the current technical state of the market. However, this is primarily an optimistic outlook, valid only if one critical condition is met — the reliability of the support zone.

The current development phase requires traders and investors to exercise increased vigilance and caution. Any breach of the key support zone immediately shifts the dynamics to a different scenario. Losing this level would mean that the fractal has exhausted itself, and the market begins a new correction cycle. Therefore, monitoring price behavior around the support area is not an academic interest but a practical necessity for risk management.