BTC fractal pattern repeats: A historical comparison between 2025 and 2022

Many traders have noticed that Bitcoin’s current price movement is eerily similar to its performance in 2022, raising an important question: does this fractal pattern truly apply to the current market environment? From a visual chart perspective, there is indeed a strong resemblance—BTC’s market movements seem to be replicating past scripts. However, a closer analysis reveals that this fractal is not exactly the same, and there are two key differences that are crucial for understanding the current market outlook.

High Fractal Similarity, but Key Technical Indicators Face Tests

On the surface, the price pattern from 2022 and the trend since October 2025 form a highly overlapping fractal. However, the critical issue lies in the technical depth reached by the market. During the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin’s price had already broken below the 50-week moving average (equivalent to the 200-day moving average), touching the support zone of the long-term market. In the current cycle, this key technical threshold has never been effectively tested. This difference may seem subtle, but it is significant in technical analysis—it means that while the fractal looks similar, it lacks “confirmation.”

Time Synchronization: A One-Month Window for Fractal Completion

The second difference in the fractal pattern relates to the time dimension. If we align the 2022 price peak with the peak formed in October 2025, an interesting phenomenon emerges: according to the time cycle correspondence, the market has about 30 days remaining in this window. This period could be enough for the market to complete its final upward push, ultimately reaching that critical 50-week or 200-day moving average. This is not just a coincidence in data but a manifestation of the fractal pattern in the time dimension.

The Final Sprint and Support Level Bottom Line

Based on the above observations, the most probable market scenario currently is: Bitcoin still has one last upward push. This rally aims toward the 200-day moving average zone, which aligns perfectly with the 30-day window suggested by the fractal analysis. However, this optimistic outlook depends on the market holding key support levels—if this line is broken, the entire fractal analysis framework will need to be reassessed.

Risk Warning: Exercise Caution During the Critical Period

No matter how enticing the fractal pattern appears, the current stage of the market requires investors to exercise extreme caution. Prices are approaching key technical levels, the time window is limited, and the stability of support levels must be continuously monitored. In this environment, risk management is more urgent than chasing upside potential. While the BTC fractal offers an interesting technical perspective, it is by no means a strict rule of market movement—markets always have the potential to defy expectations.