#当前行情抄底还是观望？

Yesterday, Bitcoin plummeted 15%, with a decline similar to that on 10.11, but without any news-driven factors. I tried to find the reason for the drop yesterday and collected some insights:

First, the total liquidation amount during such a large decline yesterday was only 2.5 billion across the entire network, whereas on 10.11, the drop caused nearly 20 billion in liquidations. What does this mean? A fourfold difference! This fully indicates that the wave on 10.11 basically cleared out all the leverage. You can think of that liquidation wave as a cleanup of leverage, but why did this drop happen again?

Here, we can see the exchange's contract position volume. On 10.11, it was at a peak, but yesterday it was surprisingly low. Under these conditions, ruling out the leverage cleanup explanation, the only possibility is to look at the large institutional BTC holdings or the movements of whale wallets. Coincidentally, I checked the Bitcoin ETF VC exchange wallet balance data. Yesterday, the exchange's BTC balance doubled! Usually, it stays at a steady level, so there's no doubt—yesterday's decline was caused by large holders, institutions, and whales selling off. In this market, which already has low liquidity, with no buy support below, it’s easy to break through!

Now I’m thinking, what could be the reason behind this large-scale institutional and whale sell-off of BTC? Maybe they sensed a deflationary recession or a financial crisis? Is the US stock market topping out? I don’t know for sure, but I do know this isn’t the bottom—there’s more to come. Let’s watch and see if a black swan is brewing!

#Bitcoin