XRP Under Bear Pressure: Testing Critical Support as Drop Below $1.20 Looms

After hitting resistance around $2.40, XRP is now facing renewed bearish pressure that could eventually lead to a drop toward the $1.20 level. Currently trading at $1.43 with an encouraging 11.17% gain over the past 24 hours, the rebound masks deeper concerns about whether this recovery can hold or if bear forces will reassert control.

The question facing traders: Is the recent strength a genuine base-building opportunity, or merely another false bounce within an established downtrend? Technical indicators suggest caution is warranted.

USDT Technical Setup: Bear Trend Structure Remains Intact

On the daily XRP/USDT chart, the pair sits just above the $1.80–$1.90 demand zone after being rejected multiple times from the $2.40 resistance band. The 100-day and 200-day moving averages continue their bearish downslope, confirming medium-term weakness despite today’s positive momentum.

The RSI has retreated from overbought extremes toward neutral territory, a bearish signal that suggests the 24-hour rally may be losing steam. As long as the $1.80–$1.90 floor holds firm, a recovery structure could still emerge. However, reclaiming the $2.20–$2.40 range is essential to argue for any meaningful trend reversal.

If this support breaks decisively, the bear case accelerates. A daily close below $1.80 would open the door toward October’s capitulation lows near $1.60, with further downside potentially reaching that feared $1.20–$1.30 demand zone where deeper support exists.

Relative Weakness: XRP/BTC Pair Shows Ongoing Underperformance

Against Bitcoin, XRP struggles to assert strength. The XRP/BTC pair hovers around 2,100–2,200 sats after sharp rejections from the 2,400 sats resistance and the converged 100-day/200-day moving average cluster.

The structural downtrend remains firmly in place. Each rally attempt into 2,400–2,500 sats has been decisively sold, with momentum consistently failing to establish higher highs—a hallmark of continued weakness. The 1,900–2,000 sats support zone shows some demand signals from recent wicks, but until daily closes reclaim the critical 2,400–2,500 sats region and key moving averages, Bitcoin continues to outperform.

A breakdown below 1,800 sats would confirm a fresh leg of underperformance, potentially extending the decline toward the prior major demand zone near 1,500 sats.

Critical Support Levels and Drop Scenarios

The bear narrative hinges on whether XRP can defend these key support zones:

• First line of defense: $1.80–$1.90 (USDT) / 2,100–2,200 sats (BTC)
• Secondary support: $1.60 (USDT historical level)
• Major risk zone: $1.20–$1.30 (USDT) where longer-term buyers may finally step in

Currently, the 24-hour +11.17% rally demonstrates short-term bullish sentiment, but without conviction above the moving averages and resistance bands, expect bears to maintain overall control.

The Bottom Line

XRP remains caught between recovering intraday momentum and an entrenched bear trend on higher timeframes. While the drop to $1.20 isn’t inevitable in the near term, the technical structure favors caution. Traders watching for a genuine reversal should wait for confirmed daily closes above $2.20, moving average alignment shifts, or capitulation lows that establish a genuine bottom before assuming bear pressure has exhausted itself.