#CPI数据将公布 Why is this CPI data so important this time?
The US non-farm payroll data released on the 11th shows an increase of 130,000 jobs in January, which significantly exceeded expectations. Additionally, the unemployment rate slightly fell back to 4.3%, and average hourly earnings continued to rise modestly. These points directly push market expectations for Fed rate cuts further into the future and less aggressive, providing important context and stress testing for the CPI data to be released tonight at 21:30.
Why is this CPI important?
1. It’s the first full-month inflation reading for 2026.
Both the market and the Fed are watching: Will the inflation cooling trend at the end of 2025 (core inflation dropping from over 3% to around 2.6%) continue into 2026, or will it be reversed by factors like tariff pass-through, fiscal expansion, and energy rebound? This is the “initial tone-setting” data for this year’s inflation trajectory. Getting the tone right makes the subsequent narrative easier to follow, while getting it wrong could lead to a reversal.
2. Recent non-farm data has been relatively strong (employment resilience exceeds expectations).
Wednesday’s January non-farm payroll data pushed back expectations for rate cuts (increasing the probability of cuts shifting from spring to summer). If CPI also doesn’t fall as expected (especially if core month-over-month exceeds 0.3%), it will reinforce the hawkish scenario of “economic resilience → rising inflation core → Fed’s rate cuts in 2026 ≤ once or even none,” putting pressure on risk assets.
3. Market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 are already cautious.
Currently, the CME FedWatch tool implies: total rate cuts in 2026 are about 1–2 times (most are priced in for 1 cut). The first cut window has been pushed to June–July or even later. If CPI unexpectedly rises, it could cut this “1–2 times” down to “0–1 times,” causing high volatility; if it meets or falls below expectations, it could stabilize or slightly front-load expectations, leading to a rebound in risk assets.
4. Early signals from tariffs and fiscal policy.
Many institutions (RBC, Goldman Sachs, PIIE, etc.) warn that core CPI in Q2–Q3 2026 could reach 3% or higher, mainly due to tariff pass-through. The January data probably won’t show clear tariff effects yet (lagging 3–6 months), but if core components like goods, housing, and rent start to show strength, it will be interpreted as “faster pass-through than expected,” further tilting hawkish.
In summary: This CPI isn’t the ultimate data that will decide whether the Fed cuts rates this year, but it’s likely a key validation point for whether the “rate cut pace is slow or even slower.”
If you are heavily invested in risk assets (US stocks, crypto, etc.), its importance is about 8/10; if you mainly watch long bonds or short volatility, it might be 9/10; for pure macro observation, around 7/10.
Stay flexible and don’t go all-in on any side prematurely.
The US non-farm payroll data released on the 11th shows an increase of 130,000 jobs in January, which significantly exceeded expectations. Additionally, the unemployment rate slightly fell back to 4.3%, and average hourly earnings continued to rise modestly. These points directly push market expectations for Fed rate cuts further into the future and less aggressive, providing important context and stress testing for the CPI data to be released tonight at 21:30.
Why is this CPI important?
1. It’s the first full-month inflation reading for 2026.
Both the market and the Fed are watching: Will the inflation cooling trend at the end of 2025 (core inflation dropping from over 3% to around 2.6%) continue into 2026, or will it be reversed by factors like tariff pass-through, fiscal expansion, and energy rebound? This is the “initial tone-setting” data for this year’s inflation trajectory. Getting the tone right makes the subsequent narrative easier to follow, while getting it wrong could lead to a reversal.
2. Recent non-farm data has been relatively strong (employment resilience exceeds expectations).
Wednesday’s January non-farm payroll data pushed back expectations for rate cuts (increasing the probability of cuts shifting from spring to summer). If CPI also doesn’t fall as expected (especially if core month-over-month exceeds 0.3%), it will reinforce the hawkish scenario of “economic resilience → rising inflation core → Fed’s rate cuts in 2026 ≤ once or even none,” putting pressure on risk assets.
3. Market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 are already cautious.
Currently, the CME FedWatch tool implies: total rate cuts in 2026 are about 1–2 times (most are priced in for 1 cut). The first cut window has been pushed to June–July or even later. If CPI unexpectedly rises, it could cut this “1–2 times” down to “0–1 times,” causing high volatility; if it meets or falls below expectations, it could stabilize or slightly front-load expectations, leading to a rebound in risk assets.
4. Early signals from tariffs and fiscal policy.
Many institutions (RBC, Goldman Sachs, PIIE, etc.) warn that core CPI in Q2–Q3 2026 could reach 3% or higher, mainly due to tariff pass-through. The January data probably won’t show clear tariff effects yet (lagging 3–6 months), but if core components like goods, housing, and rent start to show strength, it will be interpreted as “faster pass-through than expected,” further tilting hawkish.
In summary: This CPI isn’t the ultimate data that will decide whether the Fed cuts rates this year, but it’s likely a key validation point for whether the “rate cut pace is slow or even slower.”
If you are heavily invested in risk assets (US stocks, crypto, etc.), its importance is about 8/10; if you mainly watch long bonds or short volatility, it might be 9/10; for pure macro observation, around 7/10.
Stay flexible and don’t go all-in on any side prematurely.
