Compass Point Identifies $60K as the Critical Bitcoin Bear Market Floor

According to analysis from Compass Point, the cryptocurrency market may be approaching the final stages of its current downturn. While near-term volatility remains elevated, market conditions suggest that Bitcoin could be nearing a significant bottom, though timing and confirmation require patience. Compass Point’s research indicates that understanding key support zones is essential for navigating this phase of the market cycle.

The $60K-$68K Zone: Where Long-Term Conviction Emerges

Compass Point’s base case scenario points to a potential bottom forming between $60,000 and $68,000, with the strongest concentration of support clustered near $65,000. This particular range holds historical significance because it represents an area where Bitcoin’s most patient investors—those holding through multiple cycles—have accumulated substantial positions. Data shows approximately 7% of long-term holder supply was acquired within this zone, demonstrating strong purchasing conviction during previous market cycles. This accumulation pattern suggests institutional and patient retail capital have positioned themselves strategically in anticipation of recovery.

ETF Outflows and Recent Selling Pressure

Bitcoin’s recent price action tells a story of mounting pressure from multiple sources. The asset recently traded below $81,000 and declined toward $74,500 as selling intensified. These price levels reflect the average cost basis for both exchange-traded fund investors and broader market participants, making them psychologically and technologically significant. Since mid-January, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded approximately $3 billion in net outflows, indicating that capital is being withdrawn despite significant unrealized losses. With more than 50% of ETF holdings now trading underwater, Compass Point suggests these outflows could persist as investors take losses or rotate capital elsewhere. The $81,000-$83,000 zone may now function as overhead resistance, potentially capping any near-term rallies.

The $70K-$80K Gap Zone: Structural Weakness

One of Compass Point’s most striking observations concerns the price zone between $70,000 and $80,000, which the analysts describe as an “air pocket” in structural support terms. This region exhibits minimal foundational buying interest—less than 1% of long-term holder supply was acquired there historically. This supply vacuum could amplify downside speed if selling pressure intensifies. When price moves through zones with negligible historical accumulation, technical support deteriorates, potentially allowing faster declines toward the stronger support zone below.

Below $60K: Scenarios Requiring Extreme Stress

Should Bitcoin breach the entire $60,000-$68,000 support zone, Compass Point identifies approximately $55,000 as the next meaningful level. However, reaching such depths would likely require extraordinary conditions—scenarios comparable to 2022 when compounding crises (equity bear market, major cryptocurrency bankruptcies, and systemic financial stress) drove Bitcoin below its average cost basis. Current market conditions do not yet suggest such extreme scenarios are imminent, though Compass Point emphasizes that broader financial stress, particularly a major U.S. equity selloff, could trigger such outcomes.

Current Market Snapshot

As of February 2026, Bitcoin trades near $69,900 with modest daily momentum of +1.38%. Supporting altcoins like BNB show strength at $633.20 (+2.49%), while XRP demonstrates relative momentum at $1.50 (+6.02%). These levels suggest selective strength in cryptocurrency, though Bitcoin’s proximity to near-term resistance zones warrants caution.

Key Takeaways for Market Participants

Compass Point’s analysis underscores a critical message: the bear market appears to be entering its final innings, with the $60,000-$68,000 band representing a key long-term support zone. Further downside remains possible and should not be dismissed, yet a catastrophic breakdown would almost certainly require a broader financial stress event. For participants, this means maintaining disciplined risk management, respecting established support and resistance levels, and avoiding emotional decisions during volatile price swings. Position sizing and stop-loss discipline remain essential practices in this environment.