#当前行情抄底还是观望？ February 16, 2026 Cryptocurrency Market Analysis: Opportunities and Risks Under Bearish Sentiment.

Today is Monday, February 16, 2026, coinciding with the Lunar New Year. Wishing everyone a Happy New Year and all the best! The cryptocurrency market has entered a new week, and due to the U.S. Presidents' Day holiday, the US stock market is closed today, and CME's US Treasury futures trading is also paused, which has temporarily impacted overall market liquidity. In fact, Bitcoin has fallen to its current level, and market consensus seems to be focused on “waiting for further price declines”—ideally, continuously triggering our pre-set limit buy orders to deploy capital at more favorable prices.

Last week, after the release of inflation data, US stocks and the crypto markets showed signs of a rebound, and Bitcoin ETFs also experienced a short-term rally. On February 13, stock prices rose by 2.04%. However, looking at the past three months, stock prices have fallen from $14.52 on November 18, 2025, to $9.50 on February 13, 2026, a total decline of 34.57%. The market’s rebound strength has been limited and has not changed the overall downtrend. One core reason for the weak rebound is the cooling of expectations for Fed rate cuts—there don’t seem to be many rate cuts expected this year. Currently, a few Fed officials still emphasize the need to cut rates as soon as possible, but most policymakers prefer to adopt a wait-and-see approach. This cautious stance is not passive inaction but a balancing of dual risks: one is prematurely easing monetary policy, which could lead to a resurgence of inflation and undo previous efforts to control it; the other is maintaining high interest rates for too long, which could strain the labor market and trigger new economic risks. If the Fed signals that “if employment data weakens significantly, inflation concerns can be temporarily deprioritized,” then risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, will gain significant emotional support.

This week, the market will focus on two key macroeconomic data releases: the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes early Thursday, which are likely to clarify the current monetary policy stance; and on Friday, the release of PCE inflation data, a core indicator for the Fed’s inflation control. Its performance will directly influence market expectations for rate cuts and subsequently impact the crypto market.

Returning to cryptocurrencies themselves, Bitcoin surged back above $70,000 but then declined again. Fortunately, no new CME futures gaps have formed, indicating that short-term market volatility has not yet caused extreme liquidity imbalances. On the Ethereum side, a very clear futures gap appeared on the one-hour chart. Based on historical experience, if this gap can be quickly filled, Ethereum is likely to see a phase of rebound, serving as an important short-term trading signal.

The most immediate feature of the current market is that the fear and greed index has fallen into single digits—looking back at crypto history, during the 2012 crash, MtGox collapse, the 2017-2018 bear market, and liquidity crunches during the pandemic, the fear and greed index was generally in the single digits during extreme distress. This indicates that current market sentiment has returned to “extreme risk aversion,” with most investors willing to cut losses and exit rather than continue to endure volatility, spreading panic.

Interestingly, every historical turning point shows that extreme lows are rare opportunities for deployment. But when we are actually in those moments, the experience is quite the opposite: the moment fear hits its peak, the existing trend often breaks, investors’ positions are wiped out, and market confidence is shattered. Every decline seems to declare “this time is different,” and every correction raises doubts about whether the bottom is still far away.

This is the market’s truth—when most traders are driven by emotion and fear, the advantage of a long-term perspective becomes apparent. The real opportunities are often buried in the most difficult, panic-inducing moments. From the market’s chip structure, short-term holders are under significant unrealized loss pressure. During the recent brief dip, nearly 30,000 Bitcoin were transferred to exchanges in a floating loss state. This signal is often seen as a sign of rising potential selling willingness and reflects short-term investors’ panic-driven flight.

According to the latest data from Glassnode, the average cost basis for short-term Bitcoin holders is about $90,900, with active investors averaging $85,800, and the market’s true average cost is around $79,000. The realized price is approximately $54,900, which aligns closely with the observed short-term holding cost of $90,600, with minor differences due to data timing.

Despite Bitcoin’s rebound past $70,000 last week, short-term unrealized losses remain near 25%. This means that investors who entered within the past roughly 155 days are generally in significant paper losses. For funds targeting swing or short-term gains, this persistent deviation from cost basis can quickly turn into psychological pressure. Especially when the market lacks clear rebound signals or signs of bottoming, panic selling often becomes an instinct, further intensifying downward pressure.

From a historical cycle perspective, Bitcoin’s price staying below the realized price for an extended period is not normal but a typical feature of bear markets. During the last deep correction, Bitcoin’s price remained below this level for months, even nearly a year, until macro liquidity conditions improved and market chip structure was repaired, allowing the price to rise back above the realized price.

Therefore, based on historical experience, if the current market structure persists, and prices continue to oscillate below the realized price for a prolonged period, it is not abnormal. Investors should prepare for a long-term approach. To fully repair the short-term chip structure, Bitcoin needs a strong and sustained rally, pushing prices above $90,000 again, turning floating losses into unrealized gains, and gradually restoring market risk appetite and investor confidence, breaking the current panic cycle.

Regarding market bottoms, some theories based on cycle analysis suggest that an ideal bottom window may form around October 2026. This projection is based on the overlay of halving cycles and liquidity cycles, which has some reference value. However, we must be clear: cycles are not precise timing models. Market movements are always influenced by various unpredictable factors, and the actual bottom formation time will likely deviate from the theoretical estimate. Blindly relying on cycle predictions is unwise.

In any case, since the peak, Bitcoin has experienced a maximum decline of over 50%. Comparing with historical bear market data, Bitcoin has seen corrections exceeding 80% in extreme cases. Based on this, some estimate that the current downtrend might have only about 30% left. While this calculation seems rational, it conceals a logical trap—markets do not operate on fixed ratios. Historical correction ranges are only references and do not define a certain bottom boundary. The truly difficult phase often occurs when most people, believing “the decline is enough,” blindly assume the bottom is near. At that point, bottom-fishing may face even greater risks.

Many investors are concerned: Will Bitcoin fall below $58,000? Actually, this question itself is not that important. What matters is the psychological structure behind the question—when we obsess over a specific price point, it reflects hesitation about entry timing and fear of missing the bottom. Waiting for an exact price often means hoping to catch the bottom in one shot. In highly volatile assets like cryptocurrencies, this mindset carries very high risk.

The recent months of decline have already drained a lot of market patience and confidence. Currently, the market sentiment is extremely exhausted. Even a small rebound of a few thousand dollars can trigger anxiety among some investors about “missing the bottom,” leading to short-term follow-on buying. But such rebounds are often unsustainable and may be used by major players to shake out weak hands. Previously, Bitcoin dropped near $60,000 and quickly rebounded above $70,000. This kind of volatility pattern is typical of bear markets’ oscillation and shakeout phases, aimed at clearing out weak positions and exhausting investor patience.

The core issue now is not whether the price will fall to $50,000 or rebound to $80,000 next, but whether the current structure within this range can complete a trend reversal. From historical experience, after a strong correction, prices often rebound sharply and then enter deeper adjustments—a common path in bear markets. Investors should stay alert and not be misled by short-term rebounds.

However, it’s also important to note that the $60,000 to $70,000 zone has some technical and psychological support significance. Remember that in 2024, Bitcoin spent a long time oscillating in this range, forming many dense trading zones. This naturally creates support—dense trading zones imply sufficient chip exchange, higher market cost concentration, and easier formation of buy support when prices return to this area. Recently, this zone has shown some support signs, mainly due to accumulated chip structure from historical trading activity. But support is not infinitely stable. Every downward test consumes some buy-side strength, just like the $80,000 support did—large buy orders participated, but once they are filled or canceled after multiple touches, liquidity below the market thins out. If the critical support zone fails, the next key support is around $58,000, near the 200-week moving average—an important long-term trend indicator that marks the boundary of long-term trend cycles and is a key reference for assessing long-term cost structure.

Looking back, breaking below the 200-week moving average is not uncommon in bear markets, especially during macro liquidity tightening phases, where prices may temporarily or periodically fall below this long-term average. If the $58,000 support fails, the next target is around $55,000, close to the Glassnode estimate of $54,900.

An interesting observation is that in past market cycles, realized prices tend to be broken through, forcing most holders into losses, even long-term holders, until the true cycle bottom appears. This suggests that the current market may not have reached the real bottom yet; sentiment clearing and valuation compression still have room to develop. Ultimately, a bear market is a process of valuation compression and sentiment clearing—painful but necessary for market self-repair and returning to rational valuation. The core logic of phased accumulation is to spread risk over time and price, reducing the chance of misjudging the bottom—since no one can precisely predict it. If all funds are invested at once and prices continue to fall, investors will face enormous psychological pressure and capital losses.

Finally, a reminder: don’t think that because Bitcoin has fallen 50%, the downside is limited— it can still be halved again from the current level. Altcoins are a good example: an altcoin that has already dropped 80% from its cycle high may seem to have limited downside, but that’s an illusion. It could still fall another 80% from the current level. In bear markets, “no bottom in sight” is an eternal truth. Respect the market, control risks—that’s the key to surviving and waiting for opportunities.