Honestly, looking at ATOM's bullish candle today, I feel quite complicated inside.

In the past 24 hours, it surged 7%, reaching a high of $2.322, and trading volume also picked up—nearly 3 million ATOM changed hands, with 6.66 million USDT entering the market. From the candlestick chart alone, the MA7 and MA25 are forming a golden cross upward, short-term moving averages are aligned bullishly, and the technicals look good. There’s even an address directly investing 228,000 USDT to buy in—whales are moving.

But I still have to pour cold water: don’t get excited. I know this coin well, and when it rises, it’s time to sell.

Why? Because I’ve been bullish on ATOM from start to finish, but it’s been hurt from start to finish.

In the last bull market, everyone was flying high, while ATOM was just lying low; when others pulled back, it fell with them; when others hit new highs, it was still lying low. The ecosystem story was told a thousand times, cross-chain narratives hyped to the sky, but what happened? The price was weaker than many coins with no story. It’s not that the project isn’t good, but the market’s foot votes have already given the answer—this coin’s “market nature” is weak.

This rebound, on the surface, seems supported by a few “good news”:

1. Revenue sharing mechanism—ATOM plans to upgrade its tokenomics to let holders share in cross-chain ecosystem income. Sounds good, but isn’t this story a bit familiar? Similar words have been said before, and everyone knows how it turned out. Scarcity? Value capture? These words have been used on ATOM for three years.

2. EMA bullish alignment—all short, mid, and long-term moving averages are upward, which excites technical traders. But look at MACD: the DIF line has started to flatten, and although the momentum histogram is still red, it’s clearly shrinking. What does this mean? The buying momentum is starting to lag.

3. Whales entering—on-chain, there are indeed large buy orders, 228,000 USDT. To retail investors, that’s a huge amount; in ATOM’s market cap, it’s just average. Interestingly, the overall capital flow is still somewhat bearish. What does that suggest? Big players might be doing short-term swings, not really bullish on the long term.

So, what’s my view?

Short-term, it’s worth watching, but don’t get too deep into it.

$2.3 is a key level; $2.5 is a strong resistance zone. If you hold some, this rebound is an opportunity to reduce your position. Don’t think about “holding on for the main rally”—I’ve been waiting for ATOM’s main rally since the last bull market, and it never came.

If you don’t hold any, you can try to catch a quick short-term trade, but set a stop-loss, and be quick in and out. Don’t listen to stories, don’t rely on faith—just watch the candlesticks and volume. When volume shrinks, get out immediately.

ATOM is like that kind of person who has all the good conditions but just never heats up—always brewing, always on the verge but never exploding.

So, my conclusion remains the old advice: sell on rallies, don’t be sentimental. $ATOM ‌#比特币下一步怎么走？