BTC Technical Outlook: Macro Breakdown Confirmed as Price Tests Critical Support

Bitcoin ($BTC) has completed a clear distribution → breakdown → markdown cycle, confirming a decisive shift in macro structure. The rejection from the 0.786 Fibonacci supply zone near 112K marked the exhaustion of bullish momentum and initiated sustained downside pressure.
Following this rejection, BTC failed to maintain acceptance above the 0.618 (100,856) and 0.5 (93,051) retracement levels. The structure then accelerated to the downside, with an impulsive breakdown below 0.382 (85,246) and, most critically, 0.236 (75,589) — a level that previously acted as a major structural pivot.
The loss of 75K confirmed bearish continuation across higher timeframes.
Current Price Action
BTC is currently consolidating in the 68,000–70,000 range, showing signs of short-term stabilization after an aggressive selloff. This zone represents local demand, but price remains dangerously close to the macro base at 59,980 (Fib 0).
A failure to hold 68K–70K would significantly increase the probability of continuation toward the macro base, completing the full Fibonacci retracement of the prior cycle.
EMA Structure: Strong Bearish Alignment
20 EMA: 73,283
50 EMA: 80,706
100 EMA: 87,484
200 EMA: 93,882
BTC is trading below all major EMAs, confirming a fully bearish EMA structure across higher timeframes.
The 80K–94K zone, defined by the 50–200 EMA cluster, now acts as heavy dynamic resistance.
Any move into this region should be viewed as corrective unless price reclaims and holds above the EMAs with strong volume and acceptance.
Fibonacci Structure Breakdown
1.0: 126,123
0.786: 111,968
0.618: 100,856
0.5: 93,051
0.382: 85,246
0.236: 75,589
0 (Macro Base): 59,980
BTC has lost all major Fibonacci retracement levels and is now trading in the lower corrective range of the structure. Historically, this zone either produces a temporary base or resolves into a final capitulation move toward Fib 0.
Market Structure Overview
✔ Clear descending channel from November highs
✔ Consistent lower highs & lower lows
✔ Impulsive breakdown below 75K
✔ Weak consolidation forming near 68K
For any structural recovery, BTC must:
Reclaim 75,589 (0.236 Fib)
Break above 85,246 (0.382 Fib)
Close and hold above 93,051 (0.5 Fib)
Without these reclaim levels, trend continuation to the downside remains the dominant scenario.
RSI Momentum
RSI (14): 30–36
RSI is hovering near oversold territory, indicating downside momentum is extended. While this opens the door for short-term relief bounces, there is no confirmed higher-timeframe bullish divergence at this stage.
This suggests that any upside move is likely reactive, not impulsive.
Key Levels to Monitor
Resistance
75,589 (0.236 Fib)
85,246 (0.382 Fib)
93,051 (0.5 Fib)
100,856 (0.618 Fib)
Support
68,000–70,000 (local demand)
59,980 (macro base / Fib 0)
Final Summary: What’s Next for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin remains in a confirmed macro downtrend after losing the 75K structural level, which previously acted as a major support. Current price action reflects corrective consolidation, not accumulation.
As long as BTC trades below 75K–85K and beneath the EMA cluster, sellers remain firmly in control. Only a strong reclaim of mid-Fib resistance with volume and acceptance would begin to neutralize downside risk.
Until then, the broader market should expect:
Volatile consolidations
Corrective rallies into resistance
Elevated risk of continuation toward 60K macro support
Structure defines trend.
Trend defines bias.
Bias defines risk.
📉🔥
$BTC #What’sNextforBitcoin