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Just yesterday, the cryptocurrency market once again sent tense signals: if the current downturn cannot be reversed this month, Bitcoin will record its fifth consecutive month of decline, marking the longest streak of declines since the 2018 bear market.

How severe is the current situation? Since the peak in October 2025, Bitcoin has fallen a total of 52.44% in just 123 days. This figure is less than 4 percentage points away from the maximum drawdown of 56.26% experienced during the 2018 bear market. In other words, we are witnessing a rapid plunge approaching historical extremes.

This round of decline is not only a collapse of numbers but also a test of confidence. The market fear and greed index has dropped to single digits, remaining in the "extreme fear" zone for a long time. The well-known "Bitcoin whale" MicroStrategy, with its hundreds of billions in holdings, is also experiencing deep unrealized losses, even approaching bankruptcy. This indicates that even the most steadfast believers are under immense pressure. Standing on the edge of this numerical cliff, what should we see? Bitcoin’s properties may have quietly changed. It is no longer just the "digital gold" fighting inflation; in the face of macro storms, it functions more like a highly volatile risk asset closely linked to tech stocks.

In the face of declines approaching historical extremes, we must respect the market’s cyclical laws and remain vigilant of the risks involved. Staying calm during exuberance and being rational during panic are the best survival strategies in this turbulent era.