Cryptocurrency Market In-Depth Analysis: Key Support Battles Under Macro Pressure

February 19, 2026 — Bitcoin price retreated to around $66,900, down approximately 0.45% from yesterday. The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes released hawkish signals, hinting at possible rate hikes. The market panic sentiment index dropped to 9 (extreme fear). Currently, BTC is testing the critical support level at $65,000; if it fails, the next target could be $60,000. Conversely, if support holds, a technical rebound may be on the horizon. Investors should strictly control positions and monitor macro policy developments.
1. Market Overview
As of February 19, 2026, the overall cryptocurrency market remains under pressure. Bitcoin is priced at $66,933, down 0.45% in 24 hours, retreating from yesterday’s close of $67,637. This level approaches the lower boundary of recent trading ranges. Market sentiment indicators show investors are in extreme fear—the Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 9, the lowest in recent months.
Looking at a longer cycle, Bitcoin has been in a sustained correction since mid-January, when it reached a high of $97,000. The cumulative decline exceeds 30%. In early February, there was a sharp single-day volatility, with a low of $60,074 on February 5, followed by a quick rebound, indicating strong buy support in the $60,000–$65,000 range. However, recent rebounds have weakened, and the price faces directional choices again.
Ethereum also declined, with Wrapped ETH at $2,991, roughly unchanged over 24 hours. Altcoins saw more significant drops: Solana down 3.42% to $81.77, Ripple down 2.78% to $1.43, reflecting a shift of funds away from high-beta assets amid declining risk appetite.
2. Macro Drivers Analysis
Fed Policy Shift Expectations Rise
The core trigger for this adjustment is the Fed’s meeting minutes released on February 18. The minutes show Fed officials remain cautious about inflation control, hinting that if economic data remains strong, rate hikes could be considered to curb inflation. This hawkish stance directly impacts risk asset pricing—historical data shows that during rate hike cycles, a strengthening dollar often coincides with liquidity tightening in risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Reviewing the Fed rate control mechanisms you previously followed in December 2025, the removal of limits on the Standing Repo Facility (SRP) released liquidity, boosting risk assets. The current policy shift indicates liquidity is tightening, contrasting sharply with the earlier easing expectations. Investors need to reassess valuation logic for rate-sensitive assets.
Hedging Narrative Challenged
Notably, gold prices have continued to rise and hit record highs recently, while Bitcoin has declined against the trend. This further weakens the "digital gold" narrative as a safe haven. When traditional safe-haven assets and risk assets diverge, it suggests the market is reclassifying cryptocurrencies as high-volatility risk assets rather than stores of value. This shift in perception may continue to suppress institutional allocation in the medium term.
3. Technical Deep Dive
Key Price Levels
Bitcoin is at a critical technical juncture. From a support perspective, $65,000 is a psychological level tested multiple times recently and was the starting point of the early February rebound. If this level is broken, the next support is at the $60,000 mark, with deeper corrections possibly reaching the $55,000 zone. From a resistance standpoint, the $70,000 level has formed a short-term pressure zone, requiring a volume breakout to confirm a valid rebound.
Momentum Indicators
Technical indicators show a complex picture. The 14-day RSI is around 30, entering oversold territory, suggesting potential for a technical rebound. However, the MACD indicates ongoing bearish momentum, with divergence signals implying downward momentum has not yet fully exhausted. Recent declines accompanied by increased volume are characteristic of the final phase of correction, but no clear bottom volume signals have appeared.
On-Chain Data
Exchange net Bitcoin outflows are noteworthy. Large whales have been accumulating near $84,000, with a single-day net outflow of 12,000 BTC, indicating long-term holders are still buying on dips. Such on-chain behavior diverging from price trends is often seen as a mid-term bottom signal, but caution is warranted as macro deterioration could invalidate historical patterns.
4. Strategic Recommendations
Spot Investors
For long-term allocation funds, current prices are within a zone suitable for phased building. A pyramid strategy is recommended: initiate tentative positions in the $66,000–$65,000 range (about 20% of total capital). If prices dip to $60,000, increase positions to 40%. In extreme cases, if it reaches $55,000, raise holdings to 60%. Keep 40% cash for deeper corrections or trend reversal confirmation.
This strategy is based on macro cycle judgment. If the Fed clearly enters a rate hike cycle, reevaluate the weighting of cryptocurrencies in your portfolio and adjust target prices downward accordingly.
Contract Traders
Short-term contract trading should strictly follow the trend. Currently, the trend is bearish, and shorting on rebounds is preferable to contrarian buying. Specifically, consider short positions at resistance zones around $68,000–$69,000, with stop-loss at $70,500, targeting $65,000 and $62,000. If the price directly breaks below $65,000 support, consider light shorting with a stop-loss at $66,500 and targets at $60,000.
Be especially cautious: when the fear index is at extreme lows, the market is prone to V-shaped reversals. Therefore, set trailing stops on shorts to protect profits once achieved. Leverage should be limited to 3x or less to avoid liquidation from extreme volatility.
Asset Allocation Advice
Based on your previous asset allocation framework, maintain a baseline allocation of 30–40% in gold as a risk anchor. Cryptocurrency positions should not exceed 20% of total assets, prioritizing mainstream assets like BTC and ETH, and avoiding high-volatility altcoins. Once macro conditions clarify and a clear bottom structure emerges, gradually increase crypto allocations.
5. Risk Warning and Outlook
In the short term, the market faces three uncertainties: Fed policy trajectory, geopolitical risks, and crypto regulation developments. Any deterioration in these factors could trigger another wave of sell-offs. Investors should maintain sufficient liquidity, avoid leverage, and strictly control individual trade risks.
From a medium- to long-term perspective, the underlying value of blockchain technology remains intact. As infrastructure like the Lightning Network and smart contracts continues to improve, and institutional adoption steadily increases, crypto assets still have structural growth potential. The current correction can be viewed as a normal pullback within a bull cycle, not a trend end—provided macro conditions do not worsen systematically.
Key Indicators to Watch: Changes in Fed officials’ rhetoric, USD index trends, the effectiveness of the $65,000 BTC support, and ETF fund flows. Daily monitoring and flexible strategy adjustments are recommended.
Disclaimer: This analysis is based on publicly available information and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; please invest cautiously and make independent decisions based on your risk tolerance. #Gate广场发帖领五万美金红包 $BTC