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Trump's Tariff Policies Fluctuate, Bitcoin Faces Pressure and Volatility

On February 20, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were illegal, putting over $175 billion in taxes at risk of refunds. Trump immediately countered, announcing that a 10% "global tariff" would be added under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, with the new tariffs expected to take effect "within about three days."

This policy flip-flopping directly impacts the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin remains stable below the key $68,000 level, having retreated 45% from its all-time high over the past few months. Major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and XRP also show sideways movement, with gains of only about 1%.

Core Transmission Mechanism: Inflation Expectations and Liquidity Tightening

The impact of tariff policies on virtual currencies mainly occurs through two channels:

First, reinforcing expectations of "higher and longer-lasting interest rates." Analysts suggest that escalating tariffs could boost inflation prospects, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain a tightening monetary policy. In this scenario, the dollar typically strengthens, risk assets come under pressure, and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are vulnerable to liquidity tightening.

Second, suppressing risk appetite. Since the implementation of tariffs in April 2025, these trade barriers have served as a "macro-economic anchor," suppressing global markets, including crypto assets. Although the Supreme Court ruling was temporarily offset by Trump's alternative measures, in the long term, the removal of trade barriers objectively benefits risk assets.

Current Market Reaction: Cautious Observation Dominates

Despite the ruling, the crypto market has not shown a significant rebound. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, stated that macroeconomic conditions need to improve before the crypto market can begin to recover. K33 analysts believe Bitcoin may have approached its bottom but could face a prolonged period of consolidation.

Looking ahead, if the tariff narrative further intensifies and drives the dollar higher, Bitcoin's rebound momentum may not be sustainable; if related rhetoric diminishes into political noise, the market will refocus on capital flows and key technical levels. Until macroeconomic uncertainties are resolved, cryptocurrencies are expected to remain cautious. $BTC