Bitcoin Hits Historic Low Compared to Gold as Market Cycle Repeats

Michaël van de Poppe, a well-known analyst in the cryptocurrency space, pointed out that Bitcoin’s performance relative to gold is an important indicator for better understanding broader market movements. Although both Bitcoin and gold are often classified as “tangible assets” and frequently compared in financial circles, van de Poppe argues that tracking Bitcoin’s value against gold—rather than just against the US dollar—provides deeper insight into the true drivers of this asset within the ecosystem. Bitcoin to Gold Ratio Reaches Record Low Van de Poppe emphasized that Bitcoin’s value compared to gold has recently hit a historic low. Contrary to the belief of some market participants that Bitcoin has entered a short-term downtrend after reaching an all-time high against the dollar in October 2025, his analysis views the situation differently. According to van de Poppe, Bitcoin peaked against gold in December 2024 and has been declining since then. If this perspective is correct, then this cryptocurrency may have been in a bear market relative to gold for about 14 months. Historical Cycles Repeat The analyst highlighted that previous bear markets for Bitcoin measured against gold also lasted an average of about 14 months. Notable examples include periods from November 2013 to January 2015, December 2017 to February 2019, and April 2021 to June 2022. Each time, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio hit cycle lows, marking the bottom, followed by a sustained bullish trend. Based on current data, van de Poppe notes that the weekly RSI is now at its lowest point in history—an interesting similarity to the lows seen in previous cycles. Reconsidering Bitcoin’s Peak Against the US Dollar Van de Poppe offers a different perspective on Bitcoin’s recent all-time high against the US dollar in October 2025. He suggests that this milestone may not only reflect Bitcoin’s intrinsic strength. Instead, he argues that the simultaneous rise of gold and silver may have significantly contributed to Bitcoin’s dollar-denominated price increase. From this viewpoint, Bitcoin’s decline relative to gold has lasted over a year, reflecting a shift in the fundamental drivers of the market cycle within the ecosystem. Analyzing the current chart, van de Poppe observes that Bitcoin’s performance against gold is approaching a historic low—levels at which long-term bullish trends have typically begun in previous cycles. He warns that expecting this ratio to fall further may not align with historical patterns observed in past cycles. Under similar conditions in the past, Bitcoin at its lowest relative to gold has created strategic investment opportunities. Van de Poppe notes that the current scenario may be unfolding similarly to previous examples.