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Bank Stocks Fall on Macro and Private Credit Concerns
US bank stocks experienced a decline on February 23rd due to macro concerns like tariff uncertainty, potential AI-driven unemployment leading to credit losses, and private credit exposure. While the market is worried, Morningstar’s base case for 2026 does not predict a recession or significant unemployment increase, and private credit exposure is considered manageable for most banks. Despite the selloff, Morningstar maintains its fair value estimates for US banks, viewing the sector as roughly fairly valued and well-capitalized to absorb future credit losses.