March 3, 2026 Spot Gold Morning Analysis

Today is the Lantern Festival, the first full moon of the lunar new year. Lanterns glow brightly, and good luck continues! Wishing all trading partners: may your accounts be as complete as the Lantern Festival, with profits from long positions rising steadily; may your mindset be as bright as lanterns, accurately capturing every market wave. Stay healthy and everything goes smoothly. Tonight, enjoy the full moon while collecting profits!

Yesterday, spot gold initially surged then sharply fell, reaching a high of around 5418, hitting a new high for the year, then quickly retreated, dropping to around 5260. The entire day saw a volatility of over $110, closing below 5380, indicating profit-taking at high levels. Domestic gold T+D remained relatively resilient, closing around 1181 yuan/gram, with divergence between domestic and international markets.

Regarding news, there are two main points: first, the Middle East geopolitical conflict persists, supporting safe-haven sentiment and gold prices; second, the Fed's rate cut expectation for March remains, but the dollar has slightly rebounded, and after recent gains, funds are taking profits, leading to a correction in gold prices. There are no major data releases this morning; the market is mainly digesting yesterday’s volatility, focusing on changes in the dollar and risk sentiment.

The daily chart still shows a bullish trend, but short-term overbought conditions are correcting. MACD red bars are shortening, and KDJ is turning at high levels, indicating weakening upward momentum. The 4-hour chart shows a pullback toward the moving averages, with key support around 5260. A break below this level would suggest further correction; resistance is in the 5380-5400 range. Early trading is likely to fluctuate between 5280 and 5360, with a pause on the big rally, mainly consolidating sideways.

Morning strategy: in the short term, watch whether the 5260 support can hold. If it does, consider light long positions targeting 5350-5380; if it breaks below 5260, expect a correction. Avoid chasing highs or selling lows; wait for a breakout of the range before taking action.

The above is only personal advice for reference and does not constitute investment guidance. Please follow Cheng Jingsheng’s and Shi Pan’s layout for specific strategies!$XAU ‌#XAU