The outlook for $SPX SPX remains unchanged. Since our shift to a bearish ( short-term ) view, we have seen a 4% decline, but I believe any scenario between 5% and 10% this year still remains a reasonable possibility. We discussed several warning signals in our previous reply and many other posts, which have been frequent during midterm election years. This will be crucial for our BTC plan, as BTC has never historically bottomed out when SPX approaches its all-time highs. Recently, after the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, the stock market and cryptocurrencies experienced a brief rally. This is a very natural reaction, as it has happened many times in history after periods of tension. The reason is that markets start pricing in tensions before they begin and treat their initial developments as positive news events. Additionally, markets always speculate that due to war, governments will print more money, which is inherently viewed as positive for asset markets.

However, for our macro thesis, tensions in the Middle East are irrelevant. They are not the reason why we turned bearish on cryptocurrencies last year and short-term bearish on the stock market. Therefore, they will not be reasons for us to adjust our macro outlook. Other macro factors influence these markets, and war-related tensions may only be temporarily relevant. A good example is the Ukraine-Russia conflict that began in 2022.

Initially, this led to declines in many asset markets, but these declines were quickly bought up. However, it did not affect the broader outlook for assets, especially cryptocurrencies, which continued to trend downward on a macro scale to new lows. I do not expect this time to be significantly different, especially based on BTC’s macro structure. The same applies to our short-term outlook for #加密市场上涨 SPX.