The Bitcoin bearish trend will not break until it surpasses $85,000... Analysis by Deribit Chief Commercial Officer

The long-term bullish rally of Bitcoin will remain in a “broken state” until it surpasses $85,000, according to Jean-David Peguignon, Chief Commercial Officer of derivatives exchange Deribit. Currently, Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $60,000 and $70,000 over the past week, about 45% below its October high.

Near $67,400, Key Support at $60,000 as a Turning Point

Bitcoin [BTC$67,410] is currently trading around $67,410, close to the important psychological threshold of $66,600. According to Peguignon, this indicates it is still in a bearish zone with significant room for further decline.

“Until the market recovers to $85,000, the long-term chart remains broken,” Peguignon said at the Consensus Hong Kong conference. “Technically, the least resistant path still points downward.”

The next major support level is $60,000. This level was nearly reached earlier this month when Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline and has historically acted as a psychological support zone where buying interest tends to concentrate.

The 200-Week Moving Average at $58,000 as the Last Defense

If Bitcoin fails to hold support at $60,000 on a closing basis, the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) will become the next logical target for this correction. Currently, this moving average is around $58,000.

“The 200-week moving average is like a holy grail for investors looking to buy the dip or traders trying to time a bullish reversal at the bottom of a bear market,” Peguignon explained. Since 2015, Bitcoin has repeatedly hit lows near this average during multiple bear markets, which is why traders are paying close attention now.

“Ultimately, traders will likely focus on the $58,000–$60,000 range as the final support target,” he added.

Bullish Signal if Bitcoin Breaks Above $85,000

Conversely, what happens if Bitcoin breaks above $85,000? Peguignon described this as “a signal confirming that all selling pressure that worsened the long-term outlook has been absorbed and that the bulls have taken control.” In other words, surpassing $85,000 would mark a key turning point indicating a complete shift from a bearish trend.

Latin America Cryptocurrency Market Expected to Grow 60% This Year

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency trading market in Latin America is rapidly expanding. It is projected to reach $730 billion in trading volume by 2025, a 60% increase, driven by users relying on cryptocurrencies for payments and cross-border remittances.

Brazil and Argentina are leading growth in the region. Brazil dominates in trading volume, while Argentina is rapidly adopting cryptocurrencies for cross-border payments and increased stablecoin usage. Stablecoins enable practical use cases such as international remittances and bypassing traditional banking networks, playing a key role in the region’s crypto growth.

In summary, whether Bitcoin can break above $85,000 will be a critical indicator of its short-term direction.