Bitcoin's Bear Market Approaching Its End: The $65K Crucial Floor

The crypto bear market may be entering its final phase, according to market analysis from Compass Point. As bitcoin continues to consolidate, investors are keenly watching specific price levels that could determine whether the downturn is truly reaching completion or if sharper declines lie ahead. With BTC currently trading around $67.28K and showing modest daily decline of 1.43%, the question of where the actual bottom will form remains central to market participants’ strategies.

Where Long-Term Buyers Are Positioned

Compass Point analysts Ed Engel and Michael Donovan identify a critical support zone between $60,000 and $68,000 as the most probable floor for this bear market cycle. Their analysis reveals that 7% of bitcoin held by long-term investors—those holding for six months or longer—was accumulated within this exact price range during previous market cycles. This statistic carries significant weight because it suggests institutional and patient capital may be actively supporting any decline toward these levels.

The $65,000 level stands out as particularly robust, where the researchers expect “very strong support” to emerge. This zone reflects not just technical resistance but genuine conviction from experienced market participants who have survived multiple cycles and understand where true value lies. Such behavioral patterns, repeated across market cycles, provide confidence that this band represents genuine buying interest rather than temporary relief bounces.

The Dangerous Gap Above: $70K–$80K Structural Void

Between $70,000 and $80,000, however, a troubling picture emerges. Compass Point identifies this entire range as an “air pocket”—a structural void lacking meaningful buyer demand. Less than 1% of long-term holder supply was acquired in this zone, indicating scant conviction at these elevated prices. This absence of accumulated positions creates a vulnerability where selling pressure could accelerate through the zone with limited support to slow declines.

The research also flags a more immediate concern: Bitcoin ETF investors currently face underwater positions. Since January 15th, these products have experienced $3 billion in net outflows, and over half of total ETF assets under management are now trading below their entry prices. As this underwater position persists, the risk of continued ETF redemptions remains elevated. The analysts warn that $81,000–$83,000 now functions as overhead resistance that could prove difficult to break through.

How Extreme Would It Take for a Deeper Fall?

Breaking below the $60,000–$68,000 support zone would require significantly different market conditions than currently prevail. The next potential support level sits around $55,000, representing the average historical cost basis for all bitcoin buyers across every cycle since inception. However, reaching such depths historically demands more than just crypto-specific weakness—it requires synchronized negative sentiment across broader financial markets.

The 2022 bear market provides the clearest reference point. During that downturn, multiple factors aligned: a significant U.S. equity market decline combined with several high-profile cryptocurrency industry bankruptcies. Without such a “broader risk-off shock,” as Compass Point describes it, the crypto bear market appears likely to find buyers before reaching the $55,000 level. Funding rates across derivatives exchanges have begun hinting at market participants sensing a cyclical bottom may be approaching, suggesting sentiment is already shifting from panic selling toward tentative accumulation positioning.