Next Week March 9-15, 2026 Major News Flows and Economic Calendar:

Iran War 2026 Current Situation
The coordinated airstrikes launched by the US and Israel on February 28, 2026, are ongoing. Iran’s military bases, missile infrastructure, and oil depots have been heavily damaged; former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and high-ranking commanders have been killed. Iran is retaliating with missile attacks on Lebanon Hizbullah, Gulf countries, and Israel; hundreds of thousands have been displaced in Lebanon. The risk of regional escalation is high. The Strait of Hormuz is under threat. There is no ceasefire; Iran says “we are ready,” but its military capacity has significantly weakened. The situation “continues and expands.”
Economic Calendar:
Main Focus: US CPI March 11, Wednesday – inflation data will determine Fed interest rate expectations.
Others:
March 9: China CPI/PPI, Japan GDP
March 11: Eurozone/Germany CPI
March 12: US PPI, BoE speeches
March 13: US Q4 GDP second estimate, Core PCE, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Canada employment
How will markets be affected?
Iran War + inflation data = high volatility. If CPI is high, USD strengthens, rate hike expectations are delayed → stocks/cryptos come under pressure. If CPI is low, risk appetite increases. War news such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz or new attacks will push oil, gold, and safe havens higher, and crush stock markets. The general expectation is a risk-off environment, a rally in commodities, and continued stock sell-offs.
Technical + Fundamental Analysis:
Oil WTI/Brent:
Fundamental: The war threatens 20% of global supply in the Strait of Hormuz; Iran’s facilities have been targeted → risk premium added +$14 per barrel. The supply shock is the biggest factor.
Technical: A sharp breakout above 78-80, with a new high above 90, the highest since August 2022. The impulse wave is strong, with a target of $100 open. Support levels are at 82-85.
Gold:
Fundamental: War and weak employment data drive safe-haven demand to its peak. Inflation uncertainty supports this.
Technical: Consolidation in the 5100-5200 range, with 4894 weekly close support being critical. Resistance at 5340; above this, a new all-time high (ATH) is possible. The long-term bullish trend remains intact.
Silver:
Fundamental: Industrial demand plus inflation and war as safe-havens. The oil rally is also lifting silver.
Technical: Rebound with double support at 82-86, targeting 100. Short-term bullish momentum is strong, above EMA50.
Cryptocurrencies led by BTC:
Fundamental: Risk assets → war plus high inflation pressure. The “digital gold” narrative offers partial protection but is highly correlated with stocks.
Technical: Range-bound between 60k-72k, bearish below the 50-day moving average. A break above 72k is bullish; below 60k triggers panic selling.
US Stock Markets (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow):
Fundamental: War and oil shock are fueling inflation, risk-off sentiment. CPI data will be decisive.
Technical: Weekly losses of 2-3%, with a short-term correction. S&P around 6869, support at 6700-6800. High volatility, sensitive to news flow.
Borsa Istanbul (BIST 100):
Fundamental: Regional war risk, neighboring Turkey, TL volatility, foreign outflows. Defense and energy stocks are relatively resilient.
Technical: Sharp pullback from the 13,000-14,000 high, with strong sell signals from RSI and moving averages. Support at 12,500-12,800, resistance above 13,200. Short-term pressure continues.
What do you think? Share your thoughts in the comments.
Markets, Oil, Silver, #Bitcoin