This time the US-Iran conflict is actually quite interesting~

Many people's first reaction is "The black swan has arrived," but if you look closely at the rhythm, this event didn't come out of nowhere as a sudden surprise. It’s more like a gray rhinoceros slowly approaching from afar~
Market fear of black swans often erupts suddenly; but what really torments people is usually the gray rhinoceros — everyone can see the risk but still feels it’s not imminent. As a result, prices oscillate while gradually pricing in the risk.
From Dow Theory, when macro uncertainty rises, trends often enter a phase of repeated tug-of-war; and in wave structures, this period often manifests as complex corrective waves, making both bulls and bears uncomfortable~
So, what’s most likely to happen next in the market isn’t a single big bearish candle changing everything, but rather increasing volatility and emotional swings.
A black swan is a sudden fall~
A gray rhinoceros is slowly pushing people into a corner~
#Bitcoin #DJI #IXIC #NVDA