# Today's Market Analysis -- Up or Down? Bulls and Bears Are Clashing Here

The market has been quite fierce lately.. Let me explain why.

**Figure 1** Let's approach this directly from the order book imbalance angle. In the period after 60K, the price action has actually been quite orderly. Both upside and downside reversals have occurred when order book imbalances were severe.. and the reversals have been remarkably regular, with price basically returning to the mid-range within 1-2 days. (Green)

The only time it held up for a longer period was February 13~15 those 3 days.. (Yellow box) It made me think at one point that there would be a bigger rebound.. but ultimately it returned to where it came from.

And the current wave also is.. (Blue box)
Holding down 70K, 70.2K+ sell pressure, consolidating at a relatively high level above 69K for 4 days now.. no sign of moving lower.

Can this serve as a supporting reason for why recent reports from various analysts have been bullish?

Combining with ETF flows, although there haven't been large-scale net inflows in recent days, it's been maintaining a state of 100-200 million daily. Seems the ETF hasn't been affected by the Iran situation.

(Actually, Iran's side is basically just Trump softening his stance; Iran doesn't seem to want to end this. The geopolitical crisis isn't actually resolved. They even bombed an oil tanker today..)

My 65.8K long positions basically closed at 69K, and these past few days have mostly been scalping 1000 points daily based on order pressure levels and entry models.. but at this 69K position currently, there isn't much confluence to encourage me to add long positions here.

So this current wave really leaves me conflicted.. Bulls trending? Then I don't have a good entry point yet... Can only keep watching to see how this develops next.

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**Figure 2** Looking at order book situation again.. these past few days are quite different from before.

At 69K, yesterday basically had no spot order book support, but the market V'd up.. Today during Asian hours, there were ~100 spot orders at 69K, and simultaneously futures had large demand at 69K as well, so it held.

But futures simultaneously have large sell orders queued at 70K...

Why would futures choose to do range trading in such a tight interval.. don't understand.. Is it to accumulate or distribute spot here?

But regardless, this aligns with a previous expectation hypothesis: as long as price doesn't fall back into the previous large consolidation range in the late 60K period, it can consolidate above the VAH of the previous range and accumulate strength for future price discovery...

Anyway, can't figure out what the real intention of the capital flows is. Can interpret it from both bull and bear angles...

Should I just say "something big is coming"? Just the direction is hard to predict haha

The reason I can't see it clearly is also because of Figure 3.

From the spot CVD angle, also can't tell if it's accumulating or distributing here...

Can only count it as high-level divergence?

Finally looking at Figure 4:

Just as previously noted, the range is now boxed within this 65.8K upward range.. but the slightly bullish point is that currently price is still above the recent high of 74K and 65.8K AVWAP.

Potential levels to watch today: one is the 69K~68K liquidity zone in this wave, and the other is 71.5~72.5 this wave which also is a liquidity zone overlapping with 72.5K POC which hasn't been broken through yet...

Bottom line, at this position now, I'm sure everyone's psychological bull/bear bias will also show huge divergence..

**Supporting bull reasons:** Continuous ETF fund inflows, upper order book pressure zone can't break through, price is abnormally resilient, even Iran couldn't smash the price despite no material improvement.

**Supporting bear reasons:** Upper bound of the past 1 month consolidation range, continuous order book pressure, upper spot/futures orders can't penetrate it, capital momentum is lacking.

Which side do you support? What's your reasoning?