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The global economy today is increasingly resembling a classic script～
Many people keep waiting for a "black swan," as if crisis must suddenly fall from the sky. But historically, most major crises don't arrive this way—they're more like a gray rhino slowly approaching—everyone can see it coming, yet always feels it's not quite upon us yet～
From a macroeconomic perspective, elevated asset prices, continuously expanding debt levels, and gradually slowing growth momentum stacked together already represent an accumulation of long-term risk. Dow Theory contains similar logic: trends often begin changing quietly at the moment of greatest optimism, rather than being born in panic～
So the question was never "whether there's risk," but when the market will actually begin pricing in this risk.
The gray rhino's defining characteristic isn't that it charges suddenly～
But that when it's already very close,
many people are still debating whether it will actually come～