XRP Could Climb Significantly if Ripple Lawsuit Concludes: Experts Analyze Potential Price Targets

The long-running legal battle between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) appears to be nearing resolution. Under acting Chair Mark Uyeda’s leadership, the SEC has already dismissed multiple investigations involving crypto firms like Coinbase and Consensys, signaling a potential shift in regulatory approach. According to Eleanor Terrett, a prominent crypto journalist, Ripple is currently in active negotiations with the SEC to remove the permanent injunction restricting XRP sales to institutional investors—a key barrier that has prolonged the litigation. Market analysts believe that once this lawsuit concludes, XRP could experience a substantial rally.

Background: The Injunction That Changed Everything

When Judge Analisa Torres ruled in July 2023 that XRP itself was not a security, the market responded decisively. XRP jumped 101% in a single move, climbing from approximately $0.47 to $0.95 before retreating. This historical precedent has become the benchmark for what investors might expect when the full lawsuit is dismissed. However, current market conditions differ from 2023. With XRP trading at $1.39 as of March 2026—down 1.83% in the last 24 hours—the asset sits well below its all-time highs, creating what some view as a fresh foundation for potential appreciation.

The critical difference this time is that a complete settlement addresses not just the security question, but also removes the injunction limiting Ripple’s institutional distribution. This dual resolution could unlock greater upside than the previous partial victory.

Mapping XRP’s Possible Rally: Three Settlement Scenarios

When the lawsuit does close, the size of XRP’s price move will depend on multiple variables: regulatory clarity, overall market conditions, institutional buying appetite, and general market sentiment. To model different possibilities, various market analysts have outlined potential trajectories.

Scenario 1: A Replay of July 2023 If XRP experiences a similar 101% surge from its current $1.39 level, the price would reach approximately $2.79. This would represent a return to levels seen in late 2024 and early 2025, but would still fall short of the all-time highs near $3.84 reached in 2018.

Scenario 2: Enhanced Bullish Response A more optimistic outcome assumes that removing the injunction provides even stronger clarity than the previous ruling. In this case, XRP could appreciate by 150%, pushing the price to around $3.48. This level would move the asset closer to psychological resistance levels and attract additional institutional interest.

Scenario 3: Perfect Storm for XRP The most bullish case combines regulatory clarity, a broader cryptocurrency bull run, and widespread institutional adoption. Under these conditions, XRP could surge by 200%, reaching approximately $4.17. This scenario assumes multiple positive catalysts converge simultaneously—a possibility, but not a certainty.

The Factors That Will Determine XRP’s Actual Move

Several critical elements will influence how strongly XRP responds to a settlement announcement:

• Regulatory clarity: How explicitly does the settlement define XRP’s status and remove future regulatory uncertainty?
• Market sentiment: Is the broader crypto market in an expansionary or contractionary phase?
• Institutional demand: Will large financial players actually deploy capital into XRP following clarity?
• Surprise factor: How much has the market already priced in expectations of a settlement?

The Reality Check: Why Expectations Might Not Materialize

Not all analysts are convinced the market will deliver maximum upside. Market observer Dom has raised a important counter-argument: the market has already been anticipating a settlement for months. By the time an official announcement occurs, much of the positive catalyst may already be reflected in the price. In other words, the “surprise factor”—historically what drives sharp moves—has been substantially diminished by widespread expectation. Additionally, Dom notes that the settlement directly impacts Ripple as a company, not necessarily XRP as a token, which could limit the retail and institutional buying surge some optimists anticipate.

This reality tempering is worth considering alongside the bullish scenarios, especially for traders looking to position ahead of the announcement.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Readers should conduct thorough research and consult professional advisors before making any investment decisions. Past performance and analyst commentary do not guarantee future results. Cryptocurrency markets remain highly volatile and unpredictable.