Michael van de Poppe Detects Altcoin Bottom Signal, But Selling Pressure Still Dominates Market

The cryptocurrency market has just experienced a strong rebound over the past 24 hours following the Jane Street lawsuit, triggering a broad rally for altcoins. Ethereum (ETH) led this recovery, reaching $2.04K, while Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $68.21K. However, top analysts like Michael van de Poppe note that an altcoin season may be forming, despite performance indicators still showing strong selling pressure.

This conflicting situation increases the difficulty in determining whether altcoins have truly bottomed out or if risks remain. While technical outlooks suggest breaking through resistance levels, market performance data tells a different story.

ETH Recovery Leads: Signs of an Altcoin Season Beginning?

According to Michael van de Poppe, historical data on the altcoin market cap ratio to total crypto market cap shows a potential bottoming pattern. These patterns resemble those seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022, characterized by RSI levels below 24.

The first two bottoms (2014 and 2018) resulted in the largest altcoin seasons in history, while the 2022 bottom only led to a modest recovery. Van de Poppe and Moustache predict that if this pattern repeats, altcoin prices could surge from this level. Today’s market reaction, especially Ethereum’s rebound, suggests such potential may be unfolding.

Some analysts on X warn that this signal has failed several times in the past. However, Van de Poppe remains optimistic based on historical patterns and current RSI conditions.

ETH/BTC Breakout: Van de Poppe Confirms Model Break

Another key technical sign appears on the ETH/BTC chart. Van de Poppe notes that this ratio recently broke below the support zone at 0.03250 BTC after a prolonged accumulation phase. This breakout indicates Ethereum gaining strength relative to Bitcoin, a traditional sign of an upcoming altcoin season.

However, Van de Poppe emphasizes that to confirm the trend continuation, ETH/BTC must retake the 0.03250 BTC level. Extending the analysis to the altcoin/Bitcoin ratio, analyst Javon Marks observes that this pair has broken through a descending wedge pattern starting in 2022. According to Marks, this breakout signals a positive reaction and could mark the final phase of the current altcoin cycle.

90-Day Performance Data: Why Is Selling Pressure Still Persisting?

Despite positive technical signals, real-world data from Blockchaincenter tells a more somber story. Over the past 90 days, only six cryptocurrencies are in the green, including four altcoins and two gold tokens (PAXG from PAX and XAUT from Tether).

These four altcoins are Canton Network (CC) with 104% gains, Sky Protocol (SKY) — formerly MakerDAO — with 37%, Rain Protocol (RAIN) with 31.7%, and MemeCore (M) with 4.4%. The rest of the top 50 assets have declined, reflecting strong selling pressure in the market.

Even this week’s rebound isn’t enough to erase these losses. The main reason is that fear sentiment still dominates the crypto community, limiting buying activity. Additionally, crypto whales and institutions like BlackRock have been selling off during the downturn, continuing to exert downward pressure on prices.

Altcoin Season Forming: Between Technical Hope and Market Reality

Van de Poppe and other analysts acknowledge that technical conditions are leaning bullish, but performance data shows traders are still selling their altcoins. This creates a state of uncertainty: while bottom signals may indicate an upcoming altcoin season, the market still struggles with strong sell-offs and pressure from major players.

If the strength of altcoins today persists and market sentiment improves, Van de Poppe’s and Javon Marks’ technical signals could prove correct. However, until selling pressure eases and investor confidence recovers, the true altcoin season may still be on hold.