Bitcoin is gaining momentum at the cycle bottom: analysis on recovery

According to a recent analysis by Jan Van Eck, CEO of VanEck, an international investment management firm, Bitcoin is going through a critical phase where signs of recovery are beginning to emerge. The executive’s perspective offers valuable insights into the cyclical mechanisms that govern this digital asset.

The Unchanging Fundamentals of Bitcoin

To understand why Bitcoin is taking shape again, it’s essential to consider two technical pillars that define its nature: the total supply is limited to exactly 21 million units, creating programmed scarcity; and there is a halving mechanism that occurs every four years, reducing the block reward for miners by half.

These two elements are not merely theoretical — they structure predictable market cycles that consistently repeat. The historical pattern clearly shows: three consecutive years of accelerated appreciation, followed by a significant correction in the fourth year.

2026: The Expected Turning Point

Since we are now in 2026, this is precisely the critical year when Bitcoin is positioning itself at the bottom of its investment cycle. After recoveries observed in the cryptocurrency market — even though the price remains approximately 50% below the peak reached in October of the previous year — the cyclical theory suggests that a solid base is being formed.

This is not an arbitrary phenomenon, but a natural consequence of halving cycles that reduce the supply of new bitcoins and amplify demand pressure in subsequent periods.

Positive Signs of a Structured Recovery

Van Eck’s view is clear: there’s no need to overcomplicate the analysis. The fundamental data point to the formation of a market bottom — a moment of recognition where extreme pessimism gives way to renewed expectations.

These positive signs do not represent speculation, but rather a direct reflection of the economic mechanisms embedded in Bitcoin’s protocol. As the halving approaches, the supply/demand dynamics tend to favor more robust recovery scenarios.

The current downturn in the cryptocurrency market, therefore, should not be seen as indefinite, but as a predictable component of the larger cycle that has governed Bitcoin since its inception.