Bitcoin Strengthens Position on Wave of Geopolitical Instability: Return of Institutional Investors

The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East that erupted about a week ago has caused serious upheaval in global markets. However, instead of the expected collapse of the cryptocurrency sector, something unexpected happened: Bitcoin demonstrated stability, outperforming both traditional commodities and stocks. According to CoinDesk, the cryptocurrency rose approximately 3.5% to $68,000, while major asset classes suffered more significant losses. The current BTC price is $70.87K, up 3.82% in the last 24 hours, confirming a continued upward trend.

Gold and Silver: Why Traditional Safe Havens Are Suffering Losses

Contrary to investors’ expectations, classic “safe havens” showed unexpected weakness. Gold fell about 5%, silver dropped 12%, while stocks were affected to a lesser extent. The Nasdaq 100 declined by 1%, and the S&P 500 retreated approximately 1.5%. Over the past 24 hours, the divergence widened further: Bitcoin rose more than 2.5%, while US stock futures remain in the red. WTI crude oil temporarily surged to $116 per barrel, increasing roughly 60% since the start of the conflict, but comments from G7 leaders about possible strategic reserve releases cooled the rally, bringing the price back down to $100 per barrel. At the same time, the US dollar strengthened — the DXY index exceeded 99, and US Treasury yields rose from just below 4% to around 4.2%.

Futures Market: Liquidation of Leverage and Return of Healthy Demand

Tracking derivative market indicators reveals interesting dynamics. Open interest in margin futures has significantly decreased, indicating a systematic unwinding of leverage from the system. The funding rate (periodic payments between longs and shorts) remains negative, around -3.5%, suggesting short positions are still excessive, but their weight is decreasing.

This market cleansing creates favorable conditions for more stable growth. Instead of volatile, leverage-driven spikes, the market is now supported by spot demand, especially from institutional investors. The rally occurred amid recovery after weeks of intense selling, during which Bitcoin dropped from a record high above $126,000 in October to around $60,000.

Coinbase Premium: Signal of Renewed Interest from US Institutional Investors

A turning point becomes evident when analyzing the behavior of major players. The Coinbase premium — the difference between BTC prices on Coinbase and international exchanges — has reappeared after a period of absence. This indicator traditionally signals demand from US institutional investors. Meanwhile, spot ETFs have begun to show steady capital inflows, confirming that large players see current price levels as an attractive entry point.

Meanwhile, the iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF (IGV), a key sector indicator, has risen about 7% since the start of the conflict — from around $76 to $88 by the end of the week. This demonstrates a positive correlation between the cryptocurrency market and high-tech stocks, reflecting a return of risk appetite.

Venture Funding in Prediction Markets: A New Wave of Capital

Amidst the stabilization of the crypto market, an interesting development is taking place in a related sector. The new venture fund 5c© Capital announced its launch, aiming to invest exclusively in the prediction markets ecosystem with support from Polymarket and Kalshi leaders. The fund plans to raise up to $35 million and finance about 20 early-stage startups over two years.

This funding focus is not only on exchanges but also on infrastructure and services: data tools, liquidity provision, and compliance systems. The initiative has already attracted support from over 20 early investors, including a portfolio manager from Millennium Management and other founders of prediction platforms. This step reflects the rapid growth of the segment and increasing interest from major crypto and traditional retail platforms.

The event in the Middle East, which many analysts expected to trigger a new bearish decline, instead demonstrated the market’s ability to surprise consensus. Instead of a crash, there was an asset revaluation, with investors differentiating between risky assets — favoring solid tech companies and Bitcoin over traditional safe havens. This shift indicates market maturity and growing institutional willingness to consider digital assets as part of a diversified portfolio. Interestingly, even complex questions like how to clean silver of impurities during uncertain times metaphorically reflect the market’s desire to shed “dirty” positions and leave only pure, healthy foundations for growth.