March 19 Market Overview: The US submits a 15-point ceasefire plan, oil prices plummet over 5% in a single day, while gold surges against the trend

Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

U.S. Stocks: Wall Street Finally Emerges from Iran Shadow

On Wednesday, Wall Street experienced a rare breath of relief after four weeks.

The market was not driven by any earnings reports or Federal Reserve comments, but by a document—The U.S. submitted a 15-point ceasefire plan to Iran. Israel’s Channel 12 reported simultaneously that Washington is seeking a one-month ceasefire. As the news broke, Dow futures surged over 0.9%, oil prices fell below critical levels, and market sentiment shifted before the opening.

Brent crude initially dropped over 4%, falling below $100 per barrel. Asian markets like Japan, South Korea, and Australia rose accordingly, with U.S. stock index futures up more than 0.7%.

This rally was rooted in the intense market suppression of recent days. On Tuesday (March 24), renewed conflict alarms sent the Dow down 84 points to 46,124, the S&P 500 fell 0.37% to 6,556, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.84%—the steepest decline, dragged down mainly by tech and communication sectors. On that day, energy, materials, and utilities were among the few sectors remaining green, while most others sank.

Compared to two days ago, the perspectives are entirely different. Monday’s market was buoyed by Trump’s “productive talks” on Truth Social, which reversed short positions; Wednesday’s was driven by a concrete plan, injecting more substantial optimism.

On the individual stock level, tech stocks remain troubled. Oracle has retreated over 50% from its September high, ServiceNow down nearly 6%, Salesforce over 6.5%, and Microsoft nearly 3%. News of Amazon launching new AI tools continued to pressure the software sector—software ETFs (IGV) have fallen 23% this year, hitting a new low since February 25.

However, on March 25, the long-awaited rebound window finally opened.

Sentiment indicators show the VIX volatility index at 26.95 on Tuesday, down from over 30 at the outbreak of war, but still well above normal levels. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continued rising to 4.39%, revealing another fissure caused by the war—historically, geopolitical risks have driven funds into Treasuries, lowering yields, but this Middle East conflict has gone against that trend. Expectations for rate cuts this year have plummeted from 95% a month ago to about 5%, with nearly a 40% chance of at least one rate hike being priced in.

This is the real warning sign: the dual squeeze of oil price wars and inflation expectations has almost eliminated the Fed’s room to cut rates.

Gold and Oil: One Plunges, the Other Soars Against the Trend

On Wednesday, commodities markets staged a contrasting dance.

Oil: Ceasefire Hopes Hit a Big Wall

WTI crude traded around $87.60 per barrel, down over 5%, while Brent crude also sharply declined below $100. The catalyst was clear: news of the ceasefire plan led markets to preemptively price in an end to the war.

But there’s a logical trap here: the Strait of Hormuz remains partially blocked, Iran has yet to officially respond, yet oil prices are already falling. In recent weeks, similar “front-running” occurred twice—on Monday, March 23, when Trump posted on social media, Brent plunged nearly 11% in a single day; then, on Tuesday, when conflict reignited, oil prices rebounded sharply. This tug-of-war indicates markets are highly sensitive to Trump’s social media posts.

Gold: Breaking the “Gold Must Fall During War” Logic

Spot gold surged nearly 3.7% on Wednesday, to about $4,563 per ounce; silver also rose about 6.66%.

This movement defies intuition. Gold’s recent decline was driven by rising oil prices → inflation expectations → dollar strength → gold pressure. But Wednesday’s sharp drop in oil prices broke that chain, the dollar weakened, and the bullish case for gold reactivated, attracting capital.

Deeper structural support lies in the fact that gold hit a record high of $5,600 per ounce earlier this year. Even after a correction, it remains in a high range, demonstrating more resilience than Bitcoin. Central banks continue to increase gold reserves, providing bottom support through the war cycle.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Hovering Around $70,000, but Bernstein Declares “Bottom in Place”

Bitcoin traded around $70,888 on Wednesday, up about 0.28% daily, maintaining oscillation near the $70,000 mark.

This level’s context is notable: Bitcoin has retraced over 40% from its October 2022 high of about $126,000. Yet, amid a broadly bearish environment, Bitcoin has shown relative resilience—acting as a “safe haven alternative,” especially during intense Middle East risks, with funds flowing from traditional safe assets into Bitcoin.

Institutionally, the situation is quietly shifting. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani released a report Monday, explicitly stating “We believe Bitcoin has bottomed and is moving upward,” maintaining a year-end target of $150,000. He noted that net ETF outflows at the start of the year have reversed, with spot ETFs holding about 6.1% of total Bitcoin supply; digital asset “treasury” strategies hold about 3.6%, remaining strong buyers.

The Fear & Greed Index recently hit 25 (extreme fear), Bitcoin’s market share is about 58.8%, and the total global crypto market cap is approximately $2.52 trillion.

Another noteworthy point: Circle (CRCL) plummeted about 20% on Tuesday, the largest single-day drop in history, triggered by a new draft of the Stablecoin Clarity Act—reportedly potentially banning platforms from offering any “yield” on stablecoins, threatening Circle’s business model. Coinbase also fell over 8% that day. Regulatory concerns are now a high-stakes sword hanging over the crypto market.

Summary for Today: Ceasefire Plan Changes Price Logic, but War Continues

On March 25, the U.S. submitted a 15-point ceasefire plan to Iran, and markets preemptively priced in good news:

U.S. stocks: After recent pressure, a rebound with futures up 0.7%-1%. Risk appetite improves on ceasefire hopes, but AI software sector remains wounded short-term.

Oil/Gold: WTI crude drops over 5% to about $87.60, Brent falls below $100; gold surges nearly 3.7% to about $4,563, breaking the inflation chain and providing relief for gold.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin holds around $70,000, Bernstein’s optimistic call persists, institutional buying signals strengthen, but regulatory clouds on stablecoins remain a new restraint.

The market’s only concern now: Will Iran accept this 15-point plan?

If Tehran responds positively within this week, oil prices will accelerate below $80, interest rate expectations will tilt toward cuts, and tech stocks battered by war will see a fierce rebound. If Iran rejects or remains silent, Wednesday’s rally will be fleeting—as before, markets will quickly revert to panic mode.

Having lasted nearly a month, the market has developed an instinct for distinguishing “real signals” from “fake signals.” A document alone isn’t enough; the true turning point depends on the Strait of Hormuz’s ships resuming navigation.