The latest signs of a turning point in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet — I've been watching this signal for a long time~

Looking at the historical precedents of two rapid expansions of the balance sheet: the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic crash. In both cases, they were followed by sharp declines in the financial markets~
The Fed doesn't print money out of thin air; it's an emergency measure — markets collapse first, and the Fed is forced to step in~
So when I see signs of a turning point now, my first reaction isn't "They're about to flood the market, buy quickly" — but rather: who are they trying to support? Is it a preventive measure or a firefighting effort?
Preventive expansion = liquidity easing, benefiting risk assets~
Firefighting expansion = the market is already in trouble, and the support is driven by panic, not opportunity~
The common lesson from these two historical precedents: by the time you understand what the Fed is doing, the worst phase has often already happened.
Hopefully, this time is just a turning point, not a launchpad~
#美联储 # Balance Sheet #宏观分析 # Liquidity #Bitcoin