Fourfold Risks on Monday!

First, entering ground combat—this is a risk that the market previously believed "could not happen," but now it is happening. Once ground combat truly begins, it’s no longer about oil prices at 100 or 120, but potentially a direct revaluation of global risk assets. At this level, the market won't slowly decline but will instead gap down sharply and reprice in a discontinuous manner. Second, the risk within the market itself. This is not a normal decline but a "full-blown stampede." U.S. stocks have been falling consecutively (the S&P has declined for five weeks in a row, the longest since 2022), the Nasdaq is in a correction zone, U.S. Treasuries are also falling (30-year yields soaring toward 5%), and the VIX fear index has exceeded 30 (approaching crisis levels). Individually, these are not fatal, but combined they create a very dangerous situation: assets begin to "resonate downward in unison." Third, "verbal market stabilization" has failed ("expectation management" has failed). Trump previously tried to soothe oil and bond markets with words, hoping to keep them calm until the conflict ended, but the market did not respond. In the past, "a few words would do," and markets assumed policies would ultimately backstop the situation. Now, "nothing works," because policies themselves are "handcuffed." Fourth, fake news is everywhere. No one knows what will happen next, and there is deep distrust in statements from the U.S. and Iran, with no one trusting any single information source anymore. The first two hours after Monday’s open are the most critical; the key indicators to watch are not oil prices but the linkage between the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields. If the dollar surges while Treasury yields also spike wildly, it indicates that global funds are in extreme "liquidity hunger." In such a scenario, any asset could be indiscriminately sold off at the open to raise cash. Do not try to bottom fish. Wait!