Today is extremely panic (Fear & Greed index drops to 8-25)

RSI is oversold, leverage positions are high, but trading volume has decreased over the weekend, making it susceptible to geopolitical (Middle East tensions) and macro liquidity tightening impacts. Outflows from ETFs and pressure on the banking system compound the overall situation, which is in a sluggish oscillation and extreme panic phase, resulting in limited trading opportunities but structural opportunities may exist.

1. Accumulation opportunity for the “panic bottom” of major coins BTC/ETH

BTC holds the support zone at 66k-65k, with analysts believing that it has entered the final stage of the cycle adjustment, suitable for DCA (dollar-cost averaging) or light position long (targeting a rebound to 67k-70k). If it breaks below 65k, it may test 60k again, but historical data shows that extreme panic periods often lead to retaliatory rebounds.

ETH is oscillating around 2000, with potential support below at 1900-1950, and the rebound window faces pressure at 2100 above. Looking long-term, clearer regulations (joint crypto projects by SEC and CFTC) are favorable for DeFi and Layer2.

Approach: Spot or low-leverage long positions, with stop-loss set below key support; high-leverage contracts require extreme caution (current extreme panic, risk of liquidation).

2. Short-term momentum opportunities in niche/hot coins (high risk, high volatility)

SIREN (AI + DeFi hybrid coin): Today, in some periods, it led in gains (recently had a one-day surge of 67%+), if the momentum continues, it can be monitored, but it belongs to small-cap high-volatility coins, with significant centralization risk and selling pressure, suitable for very small positions chasing trends.

Bittensor (TAO) ecosystem: AI token subnet has increased by 200-400% monthly, with a total ecosystem value reaching $1.5 billion, backed by Jensen Huang. Related small coins can be used for leveraged plays, but liquidity is poor.

3TRX/OKB and other anti-dip coins: Slight positive returns, can be observed as defensive targets.

Undervalued assets: Zcash has been referred to by some institutions as “the most undervalued in crypto,” and it can be noted if there is capital inflow.

Approach: Only use idle funds, strictly implement take-profit and stop-loss, and avoid false breakouts with low volume.

3. Long-term/structural bullish opportunities (not for immediate execution today)

Regulatory + institutional bullishness: The coordination of crypto regulation by the US SEC/CFTC, Fannie Mae’s first acceptance of crypto mortgage loans, and CME’s 24/7 crypto futures starting in May are favorable for compliant capital entry.

Stablecoins and DeFi: Southeast Asia’s stablecoin payments have surged, although there are discrepancies in yield protocols, adoption rates are rising.

Cycle perspective: The current drawdown has exceeded 40%, similar to the rebound after consecutive declines in 2018-2019, suitable for HODL or phased layouts.

Risk Warning

Geopolitical + macro: Middle East situation, rising oil prices, and inflation concerns suppress risk assets.

Weekend characteristics: Low volume is easy to manipulate, with a high probability of spike moves, strongly advised against heavy positions with high leverage.

Overall: The market is still in the “valuation compression” stage; while the downside space is limited, rebounds also require volume support.

Summary: Today is more suitable for observation + light position trials rather than aggressive trading. Focus on whether BTC can stabilize above 66k and rebound with volume; if it can, it can be seen as a short-term strength signal; otherwise, continue to wait for lower levels or greater catalysts (such as regulatory implementation).

Risk Warning: The views, conclusions, and suggestions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. The market is risky, and investment should be approached cautiously.