Ethereum may face a new downward risk, with analysts warning it could drop to $1,200.

According to Mars Finance, on March 30, cryptocurrency analyst Leshka.eth expressed the view that the price trend of Ethereum is currently showing a technical pattern similar to historical “bull market traps,” with further downside risk in the short term, potentially targeting $1,200, which represents a potential decline of about 40% from current levels. Technical indicators show that the Supertrend indicator on the daily chart for ETH previously generated two “bullish” signals (in October 2025 and January 2026) that failed to sustain, leading to significant pullbacks of 45% and 48%, respectively. A similar structure has now reappeared at the key level of about $1,990, and if this level is broken, it could trigger a new round of accelerated downside. The fundamentals and capital flows are also weak. On a macro level, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and recession expectations are suppressing risk appetite, while the market’s expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have significantly shifted. In terms of capital flows, there has been a recent net outflow of about $300 million from U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs, and on-chain demand has fallen to a 16-month low. On-chain data shows that the number of large holding addresses (≥10,000 ETH) has stagnated since peaking at the end of 2025, and there are also no significant signs of accumulation from “whale” and “shark” addresses in the 1,000 to 10,000 ETH and 100 to 1,000 ETH ranges, indicating an overall state of distribution and wait-and-see. In the absence of strong buying support, if the key support level is broken, the price of ETH may face further downward pressure.